Create a Code of Ethics for a fictitious company for this assignment Coursework

Create a Code of Ethics for a fictitious company for this assignment - Coursework Example The resort is just 5 km away from the beautiful orange plantation. We provide elegant luxury with all the modern comfort in accommodation. Wild Orange resort has 50 individual suites with 2 specialty restaurants delicate to pure south Indian food, Aruvi and the Seasons multi cuisine restaurant , Teyla the a coffee shop and a library bar, called Vajra, which offers finest beverages and best cigars. We provide room service facility and 24 hr laundry. Our priority is complete satisfaction of our guests. We want every guest at Wild Orange resort to leave with an unforgettable experience. We believe in our people and we aim at the care of our employees as of our guest. We also follow to give the best training to our employee’s to make the vision of wild orange resort real. In our business Guest is our priority, then our team members and at last profit, this is the driving force of Wild orange resort. Mission Statement Our mission statement is directed towards our guests, associates and investors. Guests- We believe in uncompromising guest service by exceeding the guest expectations with high levels of service standards. Associates – We respect our associates as we do our guests and therefore work towards their growth and development. Investors – We are committed to provide maximum returns to our investors through our careful and dedicated business practices. Director’s message Dear Associates, Wild orange resort has witnessed incredible success over a period of time, from its humble beginning to nation’s most famous tourist resort. The achievement of this level was possible because we believed in very simple principles and ideas such as personalized guest service, Optimum utilization of nature’s gifts, and care for our employees. Wild orange resort will see tremendous growth from now on where the company will be transformed to a hotel chain with new resorts opening. In order to impart the growth history we had developed a bu siness code of conduct which each and every associate is bound to follow. Let’s have a pledge to follow the code of conduct, for the success of our company. Sincerely Executive director Nalinaj Raveendran Guiding Principles: Wild Orange Resorts have strong guiding principles. As far as wild orange resort is concerned, it has a strong foundation of its values and code of ethics. We believe in providing our guest with personal care and attention. Each guest who stays at Wild orange resort must remember his/her days in the rest of their life. Detailed and elegant service is the priority of our resort which makes it an unforgettable experience. Our people are valuable and they are nurtured to deliver their best towards uncompromising guest satisfaction. Our training program aims at developing professional skills of the employees which ensure better standards of service and also motivation for employees. We are committed to the nature as we are located in one of the most precious and beautiful locations on earth. We practice eco friendly products and services which contribute to nature and we help the local community. Core value – The Company that mutually represents associates and Guests. Purpose of Code: Wild orange resort plans to continue its growth trend in future too. For this trend to be continued, we need a set of strict time tested and proven code of business

Jominy End Essay Example for Free

Jominy End Essay To determine the hardenability of plain carbon steel. Theory Hardenability is the ability of a steel to be hardened and form martensite during quenching. Hardenability indicates the depth of hardness which is obtained from quenching process, and it is very important to the components of machine especially tool steel. One of the methods to determine the hardenability of steels is Jominy End-Quench Test. Hardening usually involves quenching where the steel is heated to austenite phase and fast cooling in the quench medium such as water, oil, salt solution, or air to produce microstructure of martensite. The martensite gives hard and brittle properties of steel. Usually, for heavy steel components, the hardness decreases at the core of component because the microstructure formed is ferrite and pearlite. While at the surface of the component have higher hardness. The difference of the hardness between the core and surface can be explained by Continuous Cooling Transformation or CCT diagram of the steel. If the cooling rate of steel does not cross the transformation curve of the diagram, then the hardness on the whole steel can be obtained. CCT diagrams allow prediction of the final microstructure of the steel taking into account the continuous nature of the process during cooling of austenite. Other than that, CCT diagrams take into consideration continuous cooling during quenching; the cooling curve assumes a constant cooling rate. As we can see from the diagram, martensite form at the temperature below than 200? C, it mean that the specimen with faster cooling rate will able to form more martensite and higher hardness. Continuous Cooling Transformation diagram | | The above diagram show the time-temperature isothermal transformation diagram for the plain carbon steel Apparatus Specimen of plain carbon steel, furnace, Jominy End-Quench Unit, and Vickers Harness Tester. Experimental Procedure (a) Heat the specimen to temperature of 850Â °C and soak at that temperature for 20 minutes. After that, its remain almost constant while the distance increase. In our experiment, there are some test errors where we are having small rise in our reading of the hardenability value which suppose decrease continuously. This is due to the uneven surface of the tested specimen or cause by the unbalanced cooling rate throughout the specimen. (b) Gives your opinion on the correlation between cooling rate of specimen and the graph obtained. The cooling rate at the end of the plain carbon steel are much higher compare to the. Thus, in the graph it shows the highest hardness at the early stage and then slowly decreases when approaching to the core of the steel. We also can say that, at the end of the steel has the highest hardness which cause by the high content of martensite. However, the content of the martensite and hardness will drop when approaching to the centre of the steel. We can conclude that the cooling rate decreases from the end-quench to the centre of the steel, resulting in decreasing of the hardness.

The Debate Over Internet Censorship Essay -- Television Media TV Censo

The Debate Over Internet Censorship Many people believe the Internet has become the World’s Emancipation Proclamation. They believe that this newfound cyber-freedom will free countless generations of people. These people will be of every race, creed and color, whose lives, up until now, have been restrained by the paradigm of governments. Whether it is the United States Government, or the government of a foreign nation, the Internet will be our new Underground Railroad of cyberspace.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Recently, the World Wide Web has come under fire from various forms of censorship. Singapore has been a giant of aggressiveness in regard to censorship and technology. But even with Singapore’s relentless efforts for control of the World Wide Web, the public still seeks to stay informed on every issue that concerns mankind. â€Å"As a new technology the Internet defies censorship because of characteristics such as information explosion, de-massification, convergence, computer culture, and globalization† (Kolko 424).   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   But is this newfound freedom man’s salvation, or the Plagues of Egypt? â€Å"Almost anything is allowed on the Internet as long as it does not violate the laws of the country in which the originator resides. But even if the law of the land is broken, it is nearly impossible to enforce criminal laws out of that country’s borders† (Kolko 426). As we move from our â€Å"own little world† of existence to a limitless arena of information in cyber space, at what cost does this newfound freedom come?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   All countries, like most everything else, have evolved to their ideas, beliefs and laws, primarily based on uncontrollable circumstances. Massive mistakes, holocausts of Biblical proportions, financi... ...ce and above all— warranty (10 years or 100,000 miles—5 years or 60,000 miles, bumper to bumper). Now that is competition!   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   In conclusion, it is my belief that there is a bright future for Singapore and every other country that allows the freedom of choice for their people. After all it is the people that make a nation, not the governing-few. The governing-few work for us, we do not work for them. And in reality, that is not only true for countries, but states, cities, companies, and industries.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   It is my hope that Singapore will continue to prosper (at least until my warranty runs out), and that all of us can learn to agree to disagree about censorship on the Internet. We may not like what we see or hear, but we should hold in highest regard the rights of everyone to be allowed the privilege to decide for their self.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  

Harper Lees To Kill A Mockingbird Essay example -- Harper Lee Kill Mo

Harper Lee's To Kill A Mockingbird In the novel by Harper Lee named, To Kill a Mockingbird, there is one main tragic event that occurs. The feelings and expressions dealt with in the novel are seen through the eyes of the main character, named Scout. In the novel Tom Robinson is a black male accused of rape in Maycomb County. During the same time period as the novel there were many historical events that were almost identical in setting and conclusion. There were many things that happened leading up to the court case that foreshadowed Tom Robinson’s inability to be found innocent of the charges. The Scottsboro case and the case in the novel are similar in many ways, especially in that they ruined the lives of blacks over false accusations. An event that was very much similar in nature to the novel was the Scottsboro trials. The Scottsboro trials involved nine young black males who were charged with the rape of two white females on a train. The black boys on the train got into a fight with some white males, which was the beginning of their worst nightmare. The two women on the train that made the accusations saw an opportunity to stage a rape claim. The two women in the Scottsboro case were from poor families living in African-American communities. In the 1920's and 1930s it was not common for white families to live in black communities. Even though there were a few that lived in the black communities, they were not thought highly of. The two women's names were Victoria Price and Ruby Bates. During the court case, â€Å"Another witness claimed that he had let Price use a room for prostitution and that she turned down a white man once because it was ‘Negro night’" (Greatest). Ruby Bates’ situation was not much bet... ...onvicted of a crime that he didn’t commit, which eventually led to his death. The town of Maycomb committed a sin, by killing a mockingbird. Works Cited: "The Greatest Trials of All Time." The Scottsboro Boys. 1998. Court TV Online. 13 Feb. 2002. <http://www.courttv.com/greatesttrials/scottsboro/players.html>. Johnson, Claudia Durst. Understanding To Kill A Mockingbird. 1994. Think Quest. 13 Feb 2002. < http://library.thinkquest.org/12111/scottsboro/rubybate.htm>. Linder, Doug. ""The Scottsboro Boys" Trials ." Biographies. 2002. . . <http://www.law.umkc.edu/faculty/projects/FTrials/scottsboro/SB_biog.html>. Lee, Harper. To Kill a Mockingbird. New York: Time Warner, 1982. "Scottsboro An American Tragedy." People & Events. 2000. PBS <http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/scottsboro/peopleevents/index.html>.

Critical Lens Essay on the book Night by Elie Wiesel Essay

â€Å"We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.† That quote is from Elie Wiesel in his Nobel Peace Prize Speech. I agree with the quotation. In the story Night by Elie Wiesel, many elements correspond to the quote and to the idea of silence and complicity. Wiesel says in his book that many different people were silent because they were not directly affected by the Holocaust, and thought that if they did something to try to stop it, then they themselves would get hurt. He also explained how people like Moshe the Beadle and other characters in Night who were humiliated by fellow Jews did not believe that the Holocaust was occurring. Overall, the Jews, God, and the German citizens were all silent during the Holocaust. Their silence encouraged the Nazis to gain strength and reach the magnitude of eventually massacring six million Jews. â€Å"I did not move. I was afraid,† (37) said the character Eliezer in Night. That quote refers to when his father is beaten at the concentration camp and Eliezer just stood there watching it and doing nothing to stop it. The setting of the story Night takes place in a small town of Transylvania in 1941. To this day Wiesel still feels guilty about his inaction. The silence of the victims and the lack of resistance to the Nazi threat is one way in which neutrality and silence helps the tormentors, or in this case the Nazis and never the victims who were the Jews. Even when Eliezer was being led to the fire pit and thought he was going to die, he did not try to run or escape. In the concentration camps, the Jews greatly outnumbered the Nazi soldiers. Maybe if they revolted then even though many would die in the attempt, many could still escape and the number of people who died would be insignificant to the amount of Jews who died when they did not rise up together. It is implied throughout the text that silence and passivity are what allowed the Holocaust to continue. Wiesel’s writing of Night is itself an attempt to break the silence, to tell loudly and boldly the new generation of people about the atrocities of the Holocaust. He feels that people need to know so that they can find out the warning signs and prevent anything so horrible from ever happening again. â€Å"Where is God? Where is He?† (61) someone behind Eliezer asked. This quote  from Night refers to when a child is hung in front of all the Jewish prisoners to scare them into behaving. â€Å"For more than half an hour the child in the noose stayed there, struggling between life and death, dying in slow agony under our eyes. And we had to look him full in the face. He was still alive when I passed in front of him. His tongue was still red, his eyes were not yet glazed.† (62) Behind Eliezer, he heard the same man as who said the above quotation asking: â€Å"Where is God now?† (62) And Wiesel heard a voice within himself say: â€Å"Where is He? Here He is–He is hanging here on this gallows. . . .† (62) Those quotes show that God was also silent during the Holocaust. It is the idea of God’s silence that Eliezer finds most troubling. Eliezer’s point of view during the story Night changes from not questioning why he prays, to believing that God is dead and does not care about him or any other person on earth. When a man asks, â€Å"Where is God?† (61) the only response is â€Å"total silence throughout the camp.† (61) Eliezer and his fellow Jews are left to wonder how an all-knowing, all–powerful God can allow such horror and cruelty to occur, especially to such devout worshipers. The existence of this horror, and the lack of a divine response, forever shakes Eliezer’s faith in God. At first Wiesel used to pray without questioning God’s existence. Now, Eliezer does not fast on the holy day of Yom Kippur and believes that God has died along with the boy that was hung. The silence of God shocks Eliezer and allows the Nazis to persecute them because the Jews hope for a miracle that never comes from a God who does not exist. â€Å"The opposite of love is not hate, it is indifference.† That quote is also from Elie Wiesel’s Nobel Peace Prize Speech. The German people living right next to the death camps such as Auschwitz and Buna could smell bodies being burnt, and could see the fire and smoke yet they did nothing. This is complicity, which is defined as the involvement as an accomplice in a questionable act or a crime (according to dictionary.com). The Germans were silent, and because of their silence, the tormentors and Nazis were able to further persecute their victims, who were the Jews and many other ethnic minorities that were used as scapegoats. In Night, Eliezer says, â€Å"Never shall I forget that nocturnal silence which deprived me, for all eternity, of the desire to live.† This famous quote can be interpreted to mean that  the silence of the Germans and the Allied forces is what really allowed the Jews to be murdered so heartlessly. Even though the German civilians did not do anything, Eliezer blames the Allied countries such as Great Britain and the United States for their slow response in reacting to the Nazi threat. It was said years after the Holocaust that if any powerful figure got on the BBC news radio station, telling all of the Jews to evacuate their homes and flee to Russia because all of the other Jews are disappearing, then more Jews might have been saved. Eliezer and his family were taken to Birkenau in 1944, when the war was already going on for many years. His family could have been warned and most likely saved from the Nazis. It was the neutrality and the lack of involvement of the Allied forces that led to the death of the Jews because they were not warned. In conclusion, the quote â€Å"We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor, never the victim. Silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented† is valid because the silence of the Jews, God, the German civilians, and the Allied forces contributed to the mass murder of millions of people. All of these people in their own separate ways, due to their neutrality and silence during the Holocaust period, allowed the victims to be murdered. The Jews did not rise up against their tormentors, and therefore allowed themselves to be killed. God did not act to protect his â€Å"chosen people† and at the moment of a horrible sacrifice, God does not intervene to save innocent lives. The German people went along with Hitler’s grand scheme as puppets. Finally, the only way that the Jews could have had the opportunity of escaping their fate was if they were warned. The allies had the opportunity to warn the Jews, but didn’t, perhaps believing that other countries would warn the Jews. But they didn’t. â€Å"In Germany they came first for the Communists, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Communist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a Jew. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn’t speak up because I wasn’t a trade unionist. Then they came for the Catholics, and I didn’t speak up because I was a Protestant. Then they came for me, and by that time no one was left to speak up.† That quote is from Martin Niemoller and proves that â€Å"silence encourages the tormentor, never the tormented.†

Word Choice is Critical

Word Choice is Critical Words have power. To quote Rudyard Kipling, Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind. As with any drug, words must be used carefully, with forethought and precision. Joseph Joubert said, Words, like glass, obscure when they do not aid vision. As writers our goal is to convey meaning or illicit feelings in our readers, to clarify rather than obscure. Therefore our word choice is critical.Word choice involves several considerations. Perhaps the most obvious of these is grammar. It is common today to hear entertainers and other public figures use poor grammar, or use a word incorrectly based on some new slang definition. This has become so pervasive that many have adopted the same speech style without even realizing it. It might be a matter for debate whether such a slovenly attitude toward the rules of language is ever acceptable in spoken communication. For written forms of communication, the issue is less ambiguous. While it may be acceptable when writing dialogue in works of fiction, in most forms of writing it is inappropriate. In the same way, words or expressions that are offensive to a particular racial, religious, ethnic, or other groups should be avoided. A word of caution is in order in this regard. Even if you would never even consider the use of anything offensive in your writing, you might still give offense. Many expressions have double meanings, one of which is rude or vulgar. Are you aware of these? If there is even a chance that something might be understood in the wrong way, its best to choose a different expression.Problems with grammar can also arise out of ignorance. It can be argued that literacy is on the decline, and has been for many years. Sadly, this seems to have affected every facet of society, including those who make their living as manipulators of the written word. In addition, many find themselves asked to express their ideas in a foreign language, often English. This can be a challenge. Even when a writer spea ks the second language well, the formal structure required of the written language is stricter and the audience is usually less forgiving. If you belong to either of these groups, what can you do? In a word, read. Read everything that you can get your hands on in that language (obviously trying to choose things that are well written). This is the same principle used when initially learning a language, total immersion. It is the same way that a baby learns to speak. However, when applying this method as an adult, there is a difference. A baby starts from scratch. As an adult with poor grammar, you have to first break your bad habits. One way to accomplish this is to notice the differences in the way you construct sentences compared to the way theyre constructed in what you read. Look at sentences the way a carpenter looks at a house. Dont just look at the whole, see the pieces. Dont just hear the meaning conveyed, peer beneath the surface at the structure. This means slowing down, an alyzing every word and its place in the sentence. The best way to do this is by reading out loud. Reading out loud can help you to feel the rhythm and flow of the words, allowing you to eventually make them your own.Another aspect of sentence structure is sentence length. In general, short, simple, concise sentences are more effective than long, complicated, run-on sentences. They have an immediate impact. If you want to make an important point, put it in a short sentence. State it simply. If you do, your readers will remember it. Several short sentences in a row can also be very effective, like multiple quick punches from a boxer. Of course, some of this effectiveness is lost if every sentence you write is short. Variety increases readability.This is also true for individual words. Instead of always saying that the weather was cold, why not say that it was chilly, frosty, icy, wintry, or glacial? Instead of saying that the man was fat, why not say that he was plump, chubby, stout, or portly? And instead of saying that the new analytical method was more effective, why not say that it was more efficient, successful, useful, or valuable? Using a variety of synonymous words helps to keep your readers interested in what you are saying. It can also do more than this. The English language has a rich vocabulary. Synonyms are words that have the same or similar meanings. Similar is the key word in this definition. Whats the difference between being stout and chubby? Is there a difference? As a writer, youd better know.In addition to its denotation or dictionary definition, what connotation is conveyed by a word? What feelings does it evoke? For example, the words house and home can both be defined as the structure where a person or family lives, but at the end of a long day, to which would you rather return? Heres a more personal example - which would you rather be, slim or thin? Thin or skinny? Skinny or emaciated? Emaciated or skeletal? These words mean basically th e same thing, but the subtle differences in connotation can add shades of color to your writing. Be aware of these shades of color; your word choice will influence the emotions of your readers. Direct this influence by a conscious and careful selection. Instead of saying that the hero walked out of the room, why not say that he stormed out? Instead of saying that the words were painful, why not say that they tore into her heart? And instead of saying that the car crashed, why not say that it was crushed like an empty beer can?Of course, while an expanded vocabulary is laudable, one must nevertheless remain circumspect that the objectives of ones written communiquà © not become ensconced in nebulousness and obfuscation. Why are you writing? Ultimately, whatever youre writing, your goal is communication. Your vocabulary should serve that goal. Your writing should not simply be a canvas for your vocabulary; your vocabulary should serve as a palette with which you paint a clear picture in your writing. Throwing words into your writing that your readers are unlikely to understand is like an artist throwing paint on a canvas at random; individual spots of color may arouse curiosity, but the overall impression will be one of confusion. The first sentence in this paragraph is an example. Congratulations if it made perfect sense to you, but be aware that most readers will find similar sentences frustrating if you insist on writing them. Ernest Hemingway once commented on this subject. He said, Poor Faulkner. Does he really think big emotions come from big words? He thinks I dont know the ten-dollar words. I know them all right. But there are older and simpler and better words, and those are the ones I use. So use the best words for the job, ones that put your reader in the picture but allow him to understand what hes seeing once he gets there.Its bad enough to use words that your readers dont understand, using words that you dont understand is worse. If you do so, you r readers will lose respect for you. This is especially a problem with non-fiction since they will begin to wonder whether the accuracy of your writing can be trusted.Words are tools. You might say that they are the only tools that every living person in the world uses on a daily basis. Learn to use them well. Learn what each tool does and how it can be employed most effectively. Learn the subtle differences between similar tools and how to select the correct one for the job. Learn what combination of tools will be most effective at accomplishing your objective, conveying ideas, feelings, and shades of meaning to your readers, helping them to become immersed in your story, to comprehend your technical writing, and, always, to remember what you have written. By choosing your words carefully and using them with skill, you will become a craftsman who can be proud of your finished product.

How to Write an Exploratory Essay

How to Write an Exploratory Essay The term Exploratory essay sounds weird for many students, but don’t worry in this article we will try to help you find out and understand what an exploratory essay really is. It is one of the most interesting and easy type of essay as there is no need to have special knowledge and direction to begin the exploratory essay. All what we need is the ability to think with broad imagination and creativity and conduct a little research about the subject of the exploratory paper. The meaning of the exploratory essay itself defines its meaning. The exploratory essay must find its ending in itself or we can say that the writer of an exploratory essay gets the outcome of the essay automatically while writing the essay. In other words, while writing an exploratory essay all the arguments will become clear while writing an essay. Exploratory essay writing differs from other essays, as while writing the exploratory essay there is a need of broad vision, thinking and research as the exploratory essay requires a lot of point of views and arguments which are directed towards outcome of the exploratory essay. No matter if these points of views have no bias. Writing an exploratory essay is like finding an answer to a question and learning rather than giving proof about the subject. While writing an exploratory essay we must take in account the advantages and the disadvantages of the chosen topic or, to be more precise, the subject of our topic. In exploratory essays there is a strong need of mentioning the important facts and different opinions. As written before, taking different point of views will help in placing the essay in the required mould. We can consider an exploratory essay as an artistic type of essay. The better it is explored using different opinions and point of views the better it will give its outcome and more appealing it will look. An exploratory essay usually begins with a question or an unknown fact which is answered or explained as we go through the exploratory essay. But exploratory essays may contain more than one unfamiliar fact or question. So, it is very important to carefully go through it and discover hidden facts. The more you explore an exploratory essay the more deep it gets and it reveals the artistic nature of the essay and makes it more interesting to read. Next time if you need to write an exploratory essay you just need to gather different opinions and think about the subject from different angles and do not worry if you have lack of information about it because we are always here to help you. So, if you have any problems in writing your essay and need our help don’t feel shy to contact us. We have helped a lot of students and we will be glad to serve you too. It’s that simple, just contact CustomWritings.com and we will immediately start assisting you in how to write an exploratory essay.

Three of the Four Great Chinese Masters essays

Three of the Four Great Chinese Masters essays The period of the Yuan Dynasty in China saw an explosion in landscape painting. The reign of Kublai Khan (1260-1294) caused a large amount of the scholar class to leave the imperial court, meaning "amateur" artists began to show the skills of artists of the court. At this point, four artists became known as the "Four Great Masters of the Yuan Dynasty" or "Four Great Masters of Landscape Painting." These men were Huang Gongwang, Wu Zhen, Ni Zan, and Wang Meng. Although all four were significant in Chinese painting, this paper will focus on the lives and works of Gongwang, Zan, and Meng. To understand the way that these men painted, it is important to know about the Yuan Dynasty itself. At the start of the Yuan Dynasty in 1279, China was under Mongol control. Although it was Genghis Khan who moved his men into China, it was his grandson, Kublai Khan who began the dynasty. The government was run by Mongols, but there was a strong attempt to rule in a Chinese fashion. This led to a less severe rule than China was used to, but it also caused the best scholars to found their institutes of learning and disband from the royal court (Yuan). Along with the lax government came problems, which eventually brought an end to the Yuan Dynasty in 1368. Excessive spending, especially on new canals and palaces, led to heavy taxing on Chinese citizens. In less than one hundred years, the Mongols caused China to become a highly impoverished nation. Before the fall of the Yuan Dynasty, the Mongols also lost much of their military training ability, which meant that when uprisings due to mass taxation began, it was difficult for the ruling class to fight back. Overall, the Mongols were fine with being removed from China, as it was no longer the wealthy nation it had been in 1279 (Yuan). All of the governmental issues during the Yuan period allowed artists of all types to have uncensored freedom. While poetry did not change much at this time, painting ...

Angelina Grimk's Letters to Catharine Beecher Essay

Angelina Grimk's Letters to Catharine Beecher - Essay Example Such a formulaic approach may be somewhat non-engaging with the reader; however, it is necessary in order to understand the progression and development that many of the key agents of societal change have embarked upon as they have sought to better themselves as well as the societies in which they lived. This was very much the case with Angelina Grimke’s efforts to abolish slavery and better the plight of women in the society of her time. As such, this brief analysis piece will discuss the ways in which Grimke accomplished some of these feats as a function of analysis of the letters that she wrote to a fellow friend and colleague Catharine Beecher. The back and forth between the two women has been subsequently published by a number of different sources that sought to analyze the distinct political and social growth that their debate precipitated. The fact of the matter was that Beecher and Grimke represented the very early forms of conservative and liberal thought within the Am erican political system. Although neither of them had the right to vote or carried any great amount of political clout, the arguments that were employed as well as the type of logic they both relied upon denotes a fundamentally American development of the political spectrum from that of the woman that supported the status quo as something â€Å"ordained by God† and the woman who found the status quo repulsive and ripe for a systemic change which could work to make the American political and social landscape more representative, fair, and less racist. In one of her letters, Beecher wrote to Grimke, â€Å"Women hold a subordinate position to men as ‘a beneficent and immutable Divine law’ †¦ and are the proper persons to make appeals to the rulers whom they appoint†¦ [females] are surely out of their place in attempting to do it themselves†.1 Such a world view is of course patently evident of a very traditional acceptance of gender roles within soci ety. However, it should be noted that rather than engaging on the topic of whether or not slavery was itself a tenable and/or defensible position, Beecher chose instead to argue the point from the perspective that women should put themselves in subjugation to the men who have the God-given right to make and define law. Such an approach was of course a cheap rhetorical attempt to ignore the broader moral question that defined the issues. As such, Grimke’s response served to exploit and shine light on such a cheap rhetorical aside. Said Grimke as a way of response to such a traditionalist and closed-minded response to the moral ills of the time, â€Å"Women ought to feel a peculiar sympathy in the colored man's wrong, for, like him, she has been accused of mental inferiority, and denied the privileges of a liberal education†. 2 In such a way, Grimke brought the debate directly back to the prescient issue with regards to how women are as morally responsible for the sin of slavery as their male counterparts. Grimke goes on to state, â€Å"The doctrine of blind obedience and unqualified submission to any human power, whether civil or ecclesiastical, is the doctrine of despotism, and ought to have no place among Republicans and Christians†.3 Although many of her time thought her to be a radical of sorts and

Management info Systems Discussion WK5 Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Management info Systems Discussion WK5 - Essay Example Furthermore, a software security system should be put in place to protect theft of software and useful applications on the same. On the other hand, a security system should intergrate an online transaction security as well as a computer emergency response team in times of a red alert (Wright, 2009). Therefore, the above summary includes some of the vital guidelines for a comprehensive security system. The most important guideline is the backup because it ensures safety of computer data that is stored away from the computer. It is significant because it forms a restore point incase data is stolen or destroyed by a virus. Moreover, in case of fire and the computer system is burnt down, the backup would be used to retrieve all relevant information that was in use previously. It would also act as a software backup hence its importance as compared to the rest. The physical security measures could be eliminated and the system would not be weakened.this is because the physical security protects the hardware but not the software of the computer system. The most difficult measure to enforce is the biometric system because humans can access it say a workmate who knows the system’s passwords. On the other hand, due to advancement in technology, hackers have improved their hacking tactics and can hack a security system provided that they have a right tools to do so. In conclusion, a comprehensive security system is important because it protects the computer system from damage, theft, virus attack and provision of a restore point (backup). Therefore, the guidelines should be followed keenly to ensure a comprehensive security

Operations management and organizational improvement Assignment

Operations management and organizational improvement - Assignment Example Tesco initially began as a food and drink store, but it now offers a wide range of products through its diversified operations including, but not limited to, clothing and consumer electronics, as well as services such as telecoms, health, internet, in addition to, insurance and financial services. In addition to the conventional physical stores, Tesco operates online stores that provide, among other things, groceries, home retailing, and music downloads. The operating processes at Tesco have undergone massive transformations since its inception to date (Kelly, 2000); for instance, the firm’s operating processes are centered on the customers, the suppliers, the employees, the community, as well as the shareholders. The customers are highly valued by Tesco, as the only people that bring revenue to the organization, the suppliers ensure the success of the firm’s operations; Tesco is interested in attracting employees with the relevant skills to carry out the firm’s operations to achieve its goals and objectives (Chubb, 2007). The firm has adopted a customer centered business approach that aims to enhance value creation by focusing on providing products and services that adequately satisfy the particular needs of their customers at affordable costs and convenience accordingly. Tesco is currently exploring new spaces, reaching over to non-food retail services (Tesco Corporation SWOT Analysis, 2012), extending existing stores, as well as, adopting a multi-format approach, and it heavily relies on its ICT infrastructure to deliver consistent and profitable business operations. Operating through group skill is a great part of Tesco’s operation processes as the firm constantly tries to identify the best practice in each market to improve its offerings for the group as seen in the US’s Fresh and Easy models, which have also been introduced in the UK and China (Tesco PLC, 2012). Nevertheless, it should not be assumed that the firm believ es in the â€Å"one size fits them all† strategy, because it also recognizes that customer tastes and lifestyles are not uniform, and it focuses on contextualizing the customer experiences. Tesco adeptly creates value for its customers by developing its people because it is great service that can enhance customers’ satisfaction; Tesco’s success is built on its people’s commitment to their core values of ‘No one tries harder for customers’ and ‘Treat people how we like to be treated’ (Marr, 2009). In return, the people side of Tesco operations ensures they are awarded great job and career opportunities through training, to enhance their engagement, motivation, and commitment to value creation and quality performance. Tesco prides in the best-located and best-designed stores, which in international markets are mostly whole malls that are anchored by a Tesco hypermarket; this makes the firm one of the greatest mall operators in the world. The company is keen on enhancing its sustainability by operating responsibly by bringing real benefits to the communities in which it operates through good, affordable, quality and safe products to the customers, as well as, responsible

Apex Corporation Case Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Apex Corporation Case - Coursework Example Conversely, the owners may just be satisfied with a business size that suits their managerial capabilities. Whatever the size of the business, it is the financial health that matters the most to all stakeholders (Meigs & Meigs, 10). In the given assignment, I have to assume that I am an attorney and that a client has approached me to consider whether a managerial position at Apex Corporation would be good to take up. He is already impressed with the salary and benefits they are offering but has no knowledge of accounting or finance. So I am going to have to advise him after looking at Apex’s financial statements for 2001, as the assignment criteria limits our evaluation to this year only. However we might make comparisons between the years 2000 and 2001 Analysis of Financial Statements The financial statements of a corporate enterprise, namely the income statement and the balance sheet are two of the most important summaries of the business activities that have occurred over t he last financial year. We are told that the Apex Corporation is a local manufacturing firm. The third statement that has also found to be of use to stakeholders is the Statement of Cash Flow, which shows how the firm used the cash generated in financing, investment and production activities. Negative or troubling cash flow situations are often the first sign of distress in a business, occurring long before telltale signs emerge on its income statement and balance sheet. The most common ratios that can be calculated for a corporate business entity using ratio analysis are the Current Ratio, the Debt-Equity Ratio, the Receivables Turnover, the Gross Profit percentage, the Net Profit percentage and the Inventory Turnover. This will give an analyst a good picture of the financial strength and viability of the business. Another approach would be a year to year comparison of results, using the common size income statement and balance sheets for 2000 and 2001. Calculation of Financial Rat ios Proceeding with our calculations, we first have the Current Ratio, which is calculated as: Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities. For Apex Corporation, this is: For Year 2000: $3,415,807/ $1,546,107= 2.21: 1. For Year 2001: $4,257,700/ $1,616,700= 3:1. So we find that Current Ratio has improved from 2.21:1 in 2000 to 3:1 in 2001. This indicates that there are now more current assets to cover current liabilities. The working capital which is defined as Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities, has improved from $1,869,700 in 2000 to $2,614,000 in 2001. This speaks well of the company’s short term liquidity and solvency. However, we would have to compare it to Industry Averages for the manufacturing sector to be more accurate in our perceptions (Meigs & Meigs, 943). Moving on to the Debt-Equity Ratios, the ratio of Total Debt to Total Assets can be calculated by Total Liabilities / Total Assets. For Year 2000 it is $2,296,107/ $5,615,807 or 0.41: 1 and for Year 2001 it works out to $2,466,700/$5,697,700 or 0.43:1. This means that debt was 41 cents to the dollar for each $1 of assets owned by Apex Corporation in 2000, and this increased slightly to 43 cents to the dollar in 2001. In other words we can say that each $1 of assets of Apex Corporation was financed 41percent by debt in 2000 and 59 percent by equity; this changed to 43 percent debt and 57 percent equity in 2001. Coming now to the Gross Profit Margin, this is given by: Gross Profit/ Sales x 100. For

Leadership Among Senior Managers in an Organization Research Paper

Leadership Among Senior Managers in an Organization - Research Paper Example The research will be conducted at Sky Digital which is a digital satellite broadcaster for the UK. They have 8.1 million customers and are still growing. The broadcasting industry is going through a very competitive phase, and it becomes necessary that staff in senior positions stay achievement oriented and focus on personal growth. This is essential because it impacts company performance.   The research question examines the level of existing need for achievement and personal growth among 900 senior managers in the cancellation department of Sky Digital. For the purpose of this study 100 randomly selected managers will be surveyed. 1. A one on one interview will be conducted with 100 randomly selected senior managers of the cancellation department for open-ended questions. For closed-ended questions, the response sheet will be left with the manager and anonymity will be maintained. The selection of managers will be based on simple random/probability sampling method. The lottery me thod will be used. A list of all senior managers in the cancellation department will be obtained from the HR department and every 3rd manager will be selected for the survey. 2. As and when data is collected, the responses to the survey will be updated in an excel spreadsheet. To survey the achievement needs of senior managers, a questionnaire is prepared, adapted from the achievement motivation scale published by W.W.Norton and Company (n.d.). A question is formulated for each attribute critical to need for achievement, to ascertain whether a manager manifests the need for achievement. The questionnaire has mostly close-ended questions but also includes open-ended questions to help analyse the organization’s role in supporting these managerial attitudes. Since senior managers give direction to the company and are responsible for motivating their subordinates, it is necessary that they exhibit a high level of need for achievement and personal growth. This is the reason for th e project proposed.

Apex Corporation Case Coursework Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Apex Corporation Case - Coursework Example Conversely, the owners may just be satisfied with a business size that suits their managerial capabilities. Whatever the size of the business, it is the financial health that matters the most to all stakeholders (Meigs & Meigs, 10). In the given assignment, I have to assume that I am an attorney and that a client has approached me to consider whether a managerial position at Apex Corporation would be good to take up. He is already impressed with the salary and benefits they are offering but has no knowledge of accounting or finance. So I am going to have to advise him after looking at Apex’s financial statements for 2001, as the assignment criteria limits our evaluation to this year only. However we might make comparisons between the years 2000 and 2001 Analysis of Financial Statements The financial statements of a corporate enterprise, namely the income statement and the balance sheet are two of the most important summaries of the business activities that have occurred over t he last financial year. We are told that the Apex Corporation is a local manufacturing firm. The third statement that has also found to be of use to stakeholders is the Statement of Cash Flow, which shows how the firm used the cash generated in financing, investment and production activities. Negative or troubling cash flow situations are often the first sign of distress in a business, occurring long before telltale signs emerge on its income statement and balance sheet. The most common ratios that can be calculated for a corporate business entity using ratio analysis are the Current Ratio, the Debt-Equity Ratio, the Receivables Turnover, the Gross Profit percentage, the Net Profit percentage and the Inventory Turnover. This will give an analyst a good picture of the financial strength and viability of the business. Another approach would be a year to year comparison of results, using the common size income statement and balance sheets for 2000 and 2001. Calculation of Financial Rat ios Proceeding with our calculations, we first have the Current Ratio, which is calculated as: Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities. For Apex Corporation, this is: For Year 2000: $3,415,807/ $1,546,107= 2.21: 1. For Year 2001: $4,257,700/ $1,616,700= 3:1. So we find that Current Ratio has improved from 2.21:1 in 2000 to 3:1 in 2001. This indicates that there are now more current assets to cover current liabilities. The working capital which is defined as Total Current Assets – Total Current Liabilities, has improved from $1,869,700 in 2000 to $2,614,000 in 2001. This speaks well of the company’s short term liquidity and solvency. However, we would have to compare it to Industry Averages for the manufacturing sector to be more accurate in our perceptions (Meigs & Meigs, 943). Moving on to the Debt-Equity Ratios, the ratio of Total Debt to Total Assets can be calculated by Total Liabilities / Total Assets. For Year 2000 it is $2,296,107/ $5,615,807 or 0.41: 1 and for Year 2001 it works out to $2,466,700/$5,697,700 or 0.43:1. This means that debt was 41 cents to the dollar for each $1 of assets owned by Apex Corporation in 2000, and this increased slightly to 43 cents to the dollar in 2001. In other words we can say that each $1 of assets of Apex Corporation was financed 41percent by debt in 2000 and 59 percent by equity; this changed to 43 percent debt and 57 percent equity in 2001. Coming now to the Gross Profit Margin, this is given by: Gross Profit/ Sales x 100. For

Research Project Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words - 1

Project - Research Paper Example Ubuntu is a completely open source operating system which is designed using the methodology of a Linux kernel. While Linux had already made a mark as an enterprise server medium in 2004, it did not offer software free of cost for everyday computer use. A group of them ventured to develop a simple desktop which they called Ubuntu. Their objective was to integrate Linux into the social and economic fabric by offering free software on consistent terms and conditions, and to finance it through the various services offered by Canonical (Helmke & Graner, 2013). Ubuntu’s differentiating quality from the other products of Linux lies in the fact that it does not endeavor separately in developing upscale versions and the regular, free of charge, ‘community’ ones. There is a collaboration to produce a distinct, superior quality edition, which is maintained on a regular basis for a committed period of time. The release of a particular version as well as its maintenance is fre e of charge for everyone. Ubtutu’s version 4.10, which carried the code name of Warty Warthog, was unveiled in October 2004, and there was already much enthusiasm about this new operating system. In just a year’s time follow this, the number of Ubuntu users swelled, and the company boasted sales of literally a massive amount of free software. With regards to the governance of Ubuntu, volunteer experts from the world over have undertaken the responsibility to look after the most important and crucial aspects of this software. Canonical is not solely involved and it is therefore an established fact that the Ubuntu project is maintained through a connection between Canonical and the thousand of independent experts who apply their skills to render Ubuntu the Operating System of choice for all its users (Grant, 2012). With the recent growth in demand for light, mobile desktop connectivity, as well as on the Cloud data environment, Ubuntu has evolved further, leading the pac k of software and OS developers in both areas. There is the Ubuntu Netbook version as well as the Ubunti Enterprise Cloud. These have established rather lofty standard for effective and efficient information dissemination as well as management. The Amazon EC2 and Rackspace’s Cloud both carry the Ubuntu editions, and it also comes installed on desktop PCs distributed by Dell, Lenovo, and several other vendors. 2. Features Ubuntu consists of several software equipments, most of which are sold without any licensing fee. The main objective of Ubuntu is to provide a user friendly, solid, and risk free operation system platform. Its Ubiquity installer makes it easy to fix it onto the hard drive of a computer, and there is no need to reboot the machine beforehand. There is much focus to availability and access to Ubuntu for an unlimited amount of users. The Ubuntu desktop is rather prestigious in appearance, stylish yet simple. Its speed is rapid, it is reliable and secure, and offe rs numerous features which allow for a unique computing experience. Among these features, there is web surfing, office applications, socializing and emailing facilities, music and mobile accessories, photography and images, the Ubuntu Software Centre, and Ubuntu One. This last one is the

American revolution Essay Example for Free

American revolution Essay Title The American Revolution was a political upheaval that took place between 1765 and 1783 during which rebel colonists in the Thirteen American Colonies rejected the British monarchy and aristocracy, overthrew the authority of Great Britain, and founded the United States of America. This was the first time a colony had rebelled and successfully asserted its rights to self-government and nationhood. This inspired many European nations and colonies to revolt. For the longest time, I have been led to believe that the American Revolution was the most glorious war of all American time period. However, at the consummation of American Revolution unit, my perception of the war had drastically altered. Not everyone wanted to fight; in fact, it was mostly the upper class trying to persuade the lower class to fight while the elite could buy their way out. According to Give me liberty book charpter 5, historian Foner thought Americna Revolution is a revolution about independence and freedom for maybe all of the races and classes of America. Most Americans understand the history of their freedom in an uncomplicated way: the Founding Fathers laid down principles of American liberty that their descendants have been applying ever since, steadily augmenting the happiness and value of life to all people of all colors everywhere, as Abraham Lincoln said. Eric Foner disagrees. The story of American freedom, he says, is not simply a saga of a fixed set of rights to which one group after another has gained access, but a tale of debates, disagreements and struggles with lots of bumps and wrong turns along the way. Moreover, American freedom itself is not a single idea but a complex of values that have changed over time, taking on meanings unknown to Jefferson and his contemporaries. Yet freedom, he says, provides a unifying thread for our national experience. Also Foner explains some of the ways in which the Revolution was a turning point for American slavery: The war created new opportunities for slaves to become free. American revolution definitely a representative event of seeking freedom and independence in all period of American history. But other historian or  people might question it, is that a truly revolution for all of Amerian? In other word, is this celebrated revolution considered entirely the right and profit as it claimed? Compares to Foners i dea of American revolution, historian Howard Zinn published article The untold truths about American Revolution , which he thinks American Revolution is not truly revolutionary and â€Å"This is a good cause† to independence from England and let people immediately jump to deserves a war.† He thinks that the revolution it was run not by the farmers but by the Founding Fathers. The farmers were rather poor; the Founding Fathers were rather rich. So over all of his tendentious opinion in this article, he thinks ths revolution is not benifit for all of races or classes. As he said when you look at the American Revolution, there’s a fact that you have to take into consideration. Indians—no, Indians didn’t benefit. , Did blacks benefit from the American Revolution? Slavery was there before. Slavery was there after. Not only that, we wrote slavery into the Constitution. We legitimized it. All of this opinion pointed out the one conclusion The American Revolution was not a simple affair of all of us against all of them. And not everyone thought they would benefit from the Revolution. And he also quotes a Carl Degler in the â€Å"A Kind of Revolution† of his book A People’s History of the United States: No new social class came to power through the door of the American Revolution. The men who engineered the revolt were largely m embers of the colonial ruling class. George Washington was the richest man in America. John Hancock was a prosperous Boston merchant. Benjamin Franklin was a wealthy printer. And so on. According his article and his opinion so we can say it that the American Revolution is not truly revolutionary at least for me because there is not everyone was benfited from the war and the result of the revolution didnt consider all races and classes as they claimed. Following the conclusion of the Revolution, no new social classes were formed: not even the smallest fraction of the poor became wealthy, and there was not even the slightest bit of social reform—the conditions that existed prior to the war were reinstated after the war. After all this is what the wealthy wanted. The members of the upper class threw around words like â€Å"liberty and equality† in order to excite the lower class just enough so that they would fight in a war. Furthermore, according to Zinn, the members of the upper class wanted to accomplish this  Ã¢â‚¬Å"without ending either slavery or inequality† because if either of those two things ceased to exist, then the upper class would lose its wealth and its power—two things that were very much valued by the establishment and elite. Moreover, both before and after the said â€Å"American Revolution,† the wealthy—the top five percent or so of the nation—ruled the other ninety percent of the people. Edmund S. Morgan states in his book The Birth of the Republic that â€Å"The Constitution†¦represented a reaction†¦engineered by the rich and well-born,† Not only the upper class people ruled the war, but also the non-power class didnt have any change after the revolution comparesto what they thought before. After studying the American Revolution I have recognized the significant evidence supporting the view that the American Revolution was not a truly revolution at all because the rich remained rich, the poor remained poor, the government remained in favor of those with more wealth, and those in power remained in power.

Environmentally Friendly Concrete Alternative

Environmentally Friendly Concrete Alternative Throughout history, the use of concrete as a building material has contributed significantly to the built environment. Enduring examples of various forms of concrete can be found as far back as the early Egyptian civilisation. Significant building remnants still exist from the Roman civilization, which used concretes made from naturally occurring volcanic ash pozzolans, mixed with water, sand and stone. Now concrete is being used in the construction of durable bridges, roads, water supply, hospitals, churches, houses and commercial buildings, to give people a social foundation, a thriving economy, and serviceable facilities for many years. In the modern era, the properties of concrete were refined in the late 1800s, with the introduction of a patented manufacturing process for portland cement. While it has ancient roots, concrete, as we know it today, is a modern and highly advanced building material. In the last 150 years, concrete has become one of the most widely used building mat erials on earth. Problem Statement Concrete is one of the most widely used construction materials in the world. However, the  production of portland cement, an essential material in concrete, leads to the release of significant amount of CO2, a greenhouse gas. One ton of portland cement clinker production is said to creates approximately one ton of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Environmental issues are playing an important role in the sustainable development of the cement and concrete industry. For example, if we run out of limestone, as it is predicted to happen in some places, then we cannot produce portland cement; and, therefore, we cannot produce concrete and all the employment associated with the concrete industry goes out-of-business. A sustainable concrete structure is one that is constructed so that the total environmental impact during its entire life cycle is minimal. Concrete is a sustainable material because it has a very low inherent energy requirement and is produced to order as needed with very lit tle waste. It is made from some of the most plentiful resources on earth and has a very high thermal mass. It can be made with recycled materials and is completely recyclable. Sustainable design and construction of structures have a small impact on the environment. Use of green materials embodies low energy costs. Their use must have high durability and low maintenance leading to sustainable construction materials. High performance cements and concrete can reduce the amount of cementitious materials and total volume of concrete required. Concrete must keep evolving to satisfy the increasing demands of all its users. Reuse of post-consumer wastes and industrial byproducts in concrete is necessary to produce even greener concrete. Greener concrete also improves air quality, minimizes solid wastes, and leads to sustainable cement and concrete industry. What is Sustainable Concrete? Concrete is a very environmentally friendly material. Concrete has been used for over 2,000 years. Concrete is best known for its long-lasting and dependable nature. However, additional ways that concrete contributes to social progress, economic growth, and environmental protection are often overlooked. Concrete structures are superior in energy performance. They provide flexibility in design as well as affordability, and are environmentally more responsible than steel or aluminum structures. Entire geographical regions are running out of limestone resource to produce cement. Major metropolitan areas are running out of sources of aggregates for making concrete. Sustainability requires that engineers consider a buildings lifecycle cost extended over the useful lifetime. This includes the building construction, maintenance, demolition, and recycling [ACI 2004]. A sustainable concrete structure is one that is constructed so that the total societal impact during its entire life cycle, including during its use, is minimal. Designing for sustainability means accounting in the design and also the short-term and long-term consequences of the societal impact. Therefore, durability is the key issue. New generation of admixtures/additives are needed to improve durability. To build in a sustainable manner and conduct scheduled appropriate building maintenance are the keys that represent the new construction ideology of this generation. In particular, to build in a sustainable manner means to focus attention on physical, environmental, and technological resources, problems related to human health, energy conservation of new and existing buildings, and control of construction technologies and methods. Environmental Issues with Concrete The production of portland cement releases CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. Total CO2 emissions worldwide were 21 billion tons in 2002, Table 1. Environmental issues associated with the CO2 emissions from the production of portland cement, energy demand (six-million BTU of energy needed per ton of cement production), resource conservation consideration, and economic impact due to the high cost of portland cement manufacturing plants demand that supplementary cementing materials in general and fly ash in particular be used in increasing quantities to replace portland cement in concrete [Malhotra 1997, 2004]. Fly ash is a by-product of the combustion of pulverized coal in thermal power plants. The dust collection system removes the fly ash, as a fine particulate residue from the combustion gases before they are discharged in the atmosphere. For each ton of portland cement clinker, 3 to 20 lbs. of NOx are released into the atmosphere. In 2000, the worldwide cement clinker production was approximately 1.6 billion tons [Malhotra 2004]. Longer lasting concrete structures reduce energy needs for maintenance and reconstruction. Concr ete is a locally available material; therefore, transportation cost to the project site is reduced. Light colored concrete walls reduce interior lighting requirements. Permeable concrete pavement and interlocking concrete pavers can be used to reduce runoff and allow water to return to the water table. Therefore, concrete is, in many ways, environmentally friendly material. As good engineers, we must use more of it [Malhotra 2004]. In view of the energy and greenhouse gas emission concerns in the manufacturing of Portland cement, it is imperative that either new environmentally friendly cement-manufacturing technologies be developed or substitute materials be found to replace a major part of the portland cement for use in the concrete industry [Malhotra 2004]. Energy consumption is the biggest environmental concern with cement and concrete production. Cement production is one of the most energy intensive of all industrial manufacturing processes. Including direct fuel use for mining and transporting raw materials, cement production takes about six million BTUs for every ton of cement. The industrys heavy reliance on coal leads to especially high emission levels of CO2, nitrous oxide, and sulphur, among other pollutants. A sizeable portion of the electricity used is also generated from coal. What types of materials are being used to make sustainable concrete? Coal combustion products (CCPs) It is important to develop recycling technology for high-volume applications of coal combustion products (CCPs) generated by using both conventional and clean-coal technologies. Many different types of CCPs are produced; for example, fly ash, bottom ash, cyclone-boiler slag, and clean coal ash. In general some of these CCPs can be used as a supplementary cementitious materials and the use of portland cement, therefore, can be reduced. The production of CCPs in USA is about 120 million tons per year in 2004. Cyclone-boiler slag is 100% recycled. Overall recycling rate of all CCPs is about 40%. Todays use of other pozzolans, such as rice-husk ash, wood ash, GGBFS, silica fume, and other similar pozzolanic materials such as volcanic ash, natural pozzolans, diatomite (diatomaceous earth), calcined clay/shale, metakaolin, very fine clean-coal ash (microash), limestone powder, and fine glass can reduce the use of manufactured portland cement, and make concrete more durable, as well as reduce GHG emissions. Chemical composition of ASTM Type I portland cement and selected pozzolans is given in Table 2. Recycled- Aggregate Concrete Recycled-aggregate concrete (RAC) for structural use can be prepared by completely substituting natural aggregate, in order to achieve the same strength class as the reference concrete, manufactured by using only natural aggregates. This is obviously a frustration, since a large stream of recycled aggregates to allow for full substitution of natural aggregates is not available. However, it is useful to prove that to manufacture structural concrete by partly substituting natural with recycled aggregates by up to fifty percent is indeed feasible. In any case, if the adoption of a very low water to cement ratio implies unsustainably high amounts of cement in the concrete mixture, recycled-aggregate concrete may also be manufactured by using a water-reducing admixture in order to lower both water and cement dosage, or even by adding fly ash as a partial fine aggregate replacement and by using a super plasticizer to achieve the required workability. High-volume fly ash recycled aggregate concrete (HVFA-RAC) can be manufactured with a water to cement ratio of 0.60, by simultaneously adding to the mixture as much fly ash as cement, and substituting the fine aggregate fraction. Thus, water to cementitious material ratio of 0.30 is obtained enabling the concrete to reach the required strength class (Table 3). This procedure is essential for designing an environmentally-friendly concrete. All the concretes can be prepared maintaining the same fluid consistency by proper addition of an appropriate class of a super plasticizer. SUSTAINABLE CONCRETE SOLUTIONS Concrete is a strong, durable, low environmental impact, building material. It is the cornerstone for building construction and infrastructure that can put future generations on the road towards a sustainable future [Cement Association of Canada 2004]. Benefits of concrete construction are many, for example [Cement Association of Canada 2004]: concrete buildings reduce maintenance and energy use; concrete highways reduce fuel consumed by heavily loaded trucks; insulating concrete homes reduce energy usage by 40% or more; fly ash, cement kiln dust, or cement-based solidification/stabilization and in-situ treatment of waste for brownfield redevelopment; and, agriculture waste containment reduces odor and prevents groundwater contamination. The concrete industry must show leadership and resolve, and make contribution to the sustainable development of the industry in the 21 century by adopting new technologies to reduce emission of the greenhousegases, and thus contribute towards mee ting the goals and objectives set at the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The manufacturing of portland cement is one such industry [Malhotra 2004]. PORTLAND CEMENT Portland cement is not environmentally very friendly material. As good engineers, we must reduce its use in concrete [Malhotra 2004]; and, we must use more blended cements, especially with chemical admixtures. Clinker production is the most energy-intensive stage in cement production, accounting for over 90% of total energy use, and virtually all of the fuel use. Processing of raw materials in large kilns produces portland cement clinker. These kiln systems evaporate the inherent water in the raw materials blended to manufacture the clinker, calcine the carbonate constituents (calcinations), and form cement minerals (clinkerization) [Worrell Galtisky 2004]. Blended cements The production of blended cements involves the intergrinding of clinker with one or more additives; e.g., fly ash,bnb granulated blast furnace slag, silica fume, volcanic ash, in various proportions. The use of blended cements is a particularly attractive efficiency option since the intergrinding of clinker with other additives not only allows for a reduction in the energy used (and reduced GHG emissions) in clinker production, but also directly corresponds to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions in calcinations as well. Blended cement has been used for many decades around the world [Worrell Galtisky 2004]. Concrete and the use of blended cements Although it is most common to make use of supplementary cementing materials (SCM) in the replacement of cement in the concrete mixture, blended cement is produced at the grinding stage of cement production where fly ash, blast furnace slag, or silica fume are added to the cement itself. The advantages include expanded production capacity, reduced CO2 emissions, reduced fuel consumption and close monitoring of the quality of SCMs [Cement Association of Canada 2004]. Kyoto Protocol (UN Pact of 1997, requires to reduce GHGs, including CO2). It is now ratified. USA has not ratified it. The Russian Government approval allowed it to come into force worldwide. By 2012, emissions must be cut below 1990 levels (in Japan by 6.0 + 7.6 = 13.6% by 2012) [The Daily Yomiuri 2004]. In Japan (Per) householdà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã‚ ¦5,000 yen green tax per year is planned (starting April 2005). This includes 3,600 yen in tax per ton of carbon. The revenue would be used to implement policies to achieve the requir ements of Kyoto Protocol. A survey released (on Oct. 21, 2004) showed that 61% of those polled are in favor of the environmental tax. [The Japan Times 2004]. Rate of CO2 emission and global warming is shown in Figure 1. In last 2 yrs. CO2 has increased at a higher rate than expected [Corinaldesi Moriconi 2004b]. Foundry by-products Foundry by-products include foundry sand, core butts, abrasives, and cupola slag. Cores are used in making desired cavity/shapes in a sand mold in which molten metal is cast/poured. Cores are primarily composed of silica sand with small percentages of either organic or inorganic binders. Conclusions The most important conclusion drawn appears to be that the compressive strength of the recycled aggregate concrete can be improved to equal or even exceed that of natural-aggregate concrete by adding fly ash to the mixture as a fine aggregate replacement. In this way, a given strength class value, as required for a wide range of common uses, can be reached through both natural-aggregate concrete and recycled-aggregate concrete with fly ash, by adequately decreasing the water to cement ratio with the aid of a superplasticizer in order to maintain the workability. Concrete manufactured by using recycled aggregate and fly ash shows no deleterious effect on the durability of reinforced concrete, with some improvement for some cases. From an economical point of view, if only the traditional costs are taken into account, recycledaggregate concrete with fly ash could be less attractive than natural-aggregate concrete. However, if the eco-balanced costs are considered, the exact opposite would be valid. Moreover, the fine fraction with particle size up to 5 mm, when reused as aggregate for mortars, allowed excellent bond strengths between mortar and bricks, in spite of a lower mechanical performance of the mortar itself. Also the masonry rubble can be profitably treated and reused for preparing mortars. Even for the fine fraction produced during the recycling process, that is the concrete-rubble powder, an excellent reuse was found, as filler in self-compacting concrete. The attempt to improve the quality of the recycled aggregates for new concretes by reusing in different ways the most detrimental fractions, i.e., the material coming from masonry rubble and the finest recycled materials, allowed to achieve surprising and unexpected performances for mortars and selfcompacting concretes. Other industrial wastes, such as GRP waste powder, can prove useful to be re-used in cementitious products, by improving some durability aspects. The concrete industry will be called upon to serve the two pressing needs of human society; namely, protection of the environment and meeting the infrastructural requirement for increasing industrialization and urbanization of the world. Also due to large size, the concrete industry is unquestionably the ideal medium for the economic and safe use of millions of tons of industrial byproducts such as fly ash and slag due to their highly pozzolanic and cementitious properties. It is obvious that large-scale cement replacement (60 70 %) in concrete with these industrial by-products will be advantageous from the standpoint of cost economy, energy efficiency, durability, and overall ecological profile of concrete. Therefore, in the future, the use of by-product supplementary cementing materials ought to be made mandatory [Malhotra 2004].

deatharms Accepting Death in Ernest Hemingways A Farewell to Arms Ess

Accepting Death in Hemingway's A Farewell To Arms A Farewell To Arms is Ernest Hemingway's poignant yet simple tale of two young lovers who meet during the chaos of W.W.I and the relationship that endures until its tragic end. Frederick Henry, an American lieutenant in the Italian army, and Catherine Barkley, an English volunteer nurse, share a devout love for one another that deepens as Catherine becomes pregnant, yet their blissful relationship becomes tragically shortened as the baby and Catherine die as a result of the birth, leaving Frederick alone to accept their deaths. Written in the distinctive and unimbellished style signature to Ernest Hemingway, "A Farewell To Arms" carries the reader through a roller-coaster of emotions dealing with the idea that death remains as the end of life, and that man must live to its fullest potential while provided the ability to do so. The concept of understanding and accepting death plays a prominent role in "A Farewell To Arms." The idea of death permeates or lies behind all of the characters' actions. This involves the idea of "w...

Forces Keeping Romeo And Juliet Apart in Shakespeares Romeo and Juliet :: William Shakespeare Romeo and Juliet

Romeo and Juliet are madly in love with each other and will go to any lengths to be together. To support my thesis that the conflict between the heads of the Montague and Capulet families are responsible for Romeo and Juliet's death, I quote from Romeo and Juliet (V, iii, 291-293) Prince: "... Capulet! Montague! See, what a scourge is laid upon your hate, that heaven finds means to kill your joys with love! What the Prince is saying is that, see what dreadful punishment has been laid upon your hatred. Heaven finds a reason to kill your joys with their love!" There are many forces in the tragic play of Romeo and Juliet that are keeping the two young, passionate lovers apart, all emanating from one main reason. In this essay I will discuss these as well as how love, in the end, may have been the cause that led to the tragic deaths of Romeo and Juliet. Their strong attraction to each other, which some call fate, determines where their forbidden love will take them. The leading force, in my opinion, that led to Romeo and Juliet's death is the conflict between the two fathers, Capulet and Montague. It's because of this conflict that Romeo and Juliet feel they must hide their love which, in the end, is the cause of their deaths. Because of this conflict, confrontations occurred and insults were thrown. Hatred is bred which is evident when Tybalt, who is Lady Capulet's nephew, joins the fight against the Montague family. Tybalt hates Romeo and doesn't hesitate to let it be known. The next force is hatred and it is widespread and commonplace in this play, it sometimes seems necessary for others to join the fight in order to portray loyalty for a particular person. Romeo wanted the fighting to end so he could announce his love and marriage to Juliet so he wasn't happy when his best friend, Mercuto, decided to stick up for him against Tybalt. In desperation, Romeo intervenes between the two, which in turn breaks Mercuto's concentration and allows Tybalt to stab him. Like any good friend, Romeo now has to challenge this death and fight Tybalt. Romeo kills Tybalt, which ultimately leads to his banishment. Romeo spent one night of passion with Juliet before going into "hiding" after killing Tybalt. He chose to hide in the Mantua countryside where nobody would recognize him.

How Did the Internet Affect My Privacy

Elizabeth. Loachamin 06 February 2013 Movies are one of my favorite hobbies. ? Each film has its own beauty and meaning, it’s really hard for me to pick one to be the movie that I enjoy the most. However, according to some films I have recently watched,  Ã¢â‚¬Ëœthe pursuit of happiness’ which has great influence on me, the beauty of a relationship between father and his son is what interest me the most. The pursuit of happiness’ tell us the story of a father and his son after a failed investment, the father that plays on the movie was actor, is Will Smith loses everything his wife, his house, and his money. The only thing that helps the man keep on living is his son. The whole movie describes the bad days of his life when he had no money, no place to live, not even a place to sleep; the father and son had to sleep in a public rest room. I really like the way the main character protects his son, the way he fights against fate and the way he tries to attain the l ife he once had.Thanks to the directors that make these types of movies and show so much passion and drama on movies like ‘the pursuit of happiness’. Will Smith is famous for action films but this time, he shows the audience a new appearance. I actually can see such a wonderful movie about the relationship between father and son like this. It is a bit embarrassing to admitted but I cried watching this movie it was very emotional for me, If you are the type of people who like movies about family, you should not miss this movie ‘the pursuit of happiness’

The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows

The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates for Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings Baruch Lev* New York University Siyi Li University of Illinois Theodore Sougiannis University of Illinois and ALBA January, 2009 * Contact information: Baruch Lev ([email  protected] nyu. edu), Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012.The authors are indebted to the editor and reviewers of the Review of Accounting Studies for suggestions and guidance, and to Louis Chan, Ilia Dichev, John Hand, James Ohlson, Shiva Rajgopal, and Stephen Ryan for helpful comments, as well as to participants of seminars at Athens University of Economics and Business, London Business School, Penn State University, Purdue University, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, University of Texas at Dallas, Washington University in St.Louis, the joint Columbia–NYU Seminar, the 16th Financial Economics and Accounting Conference, the 2006 AAA FARS Midyear Meeting, and the 2008 AAA Annual Meeting. 1 ABSTRACT Estimates and projections are embedded in most financial statement items. These estimates potentially improve the relevance of financial information by providing managers the means to convey to investors forward-looking, inside information (e. g. , on future collections from customers via the bad debt provision).On the other hand, the quality of financial information is compromised by: (i) the increasing difficulty of making reliable forecasts in a fastchanging, often turbulent economy, and (ii) the frequent managerial misuse of estimates to manipulate financial data. Given the ever-increasing prevalence of estimates in accounting data, whether these opposing forces result in an improvement in the quality of financial information or not is among the most fundamental issues in accounting. We examine in this study he contribution of accounting estimates embedded in accruals to the quality of financial information, as reflected by their usefulness in the prediction of enterpr ise cash flows and earnings. Our extensive out-of-sample tests, reflecting both the statistical and economic significance of estimates, indicate that accounting estimates beyond those in working capital items do not improve the prediction of cash flows. Estimates do, however, improve the prediction of next year’s earnings, though not of subsequent years’ earnings. Our economic significance tests corroborate that accounting estimates do not improve cash flow or earnings prediction.We conclude that the usefulness of accounting estimates to investors is limited, and provide suggestions for improving their usefulness. 2 The Usefulness of Accounting Estimates For Predicting Cash Flows and Earnings 1. Introduction Financial statement information, be it balance sheet items such as net property, plant and equipment, goodwill and other intangibles, accounts receivable and inventories, or key income statement figures, such as revenues, pension expense, in-process R&D, or the rec ently expensed employee stock options, is largely based on managerial estimates and projections.The economic condition of the enterprise and the consequences of its operations as portrayed by quarterly and annual financial reports are therefore an intricate and ever changing web of facts and conjectures, where the dividing line between the two is largely unknown to information users. With the current move of accounting standard-setters in the U. S. and abroad toward increased fair-value measurement of assets and liabilities, the role of estimates and projections in financial reports will further increase.We ask in this study: what is the effect of the multitude of managerial estimates embedded in accounting data on the usefulness of financial information? straightforward. The answer is far from On the one hand, estimates/projections are potentially useful to investors because they are the primary means for managers to convey credibly forward-looking proprietary information to invest ors1. Thus, for example, the bad debt provision, if estimated properly, informs investors on expected future cash flows from customers, restructuring charges predict future employee severance payments and plant closing costs, and the capitalized portion of We say â€Å"credibly† primarily because post Sarbanes-Oxley the firm’s CEO and CFO have to certify that â€Å"†¦information contained in the periodic report fairly represents, in all material respects, the financial condition and results of operations of the issuer†¦Ã¢â‚¬  3 software development costs (SFAS 86) informs investors about development projects that passed successfully technological feasibility tests and are accordingly expected to enhance future revenues and earnings. 2 This potential contribution of managerial estimates to investors’ ssessment of future enterprise cash flows underlies the oft-quoted statement by the Financial Accounting Standard Board (FASB) in its Conceptual Framewor k about the superiority of accruals earnings—mostly based on estimates—over the largely fact-based cash flows in predicting future enterprise cash flows: Information about enterprise earnings based on accruals accounting generally provides a better indication of an enterprise’s present and continuing ability to generate favorable cash flows than information limited to the financial aspects of cash receipts and payments (FASB, 1978, p. IX).On the other hand, the contribution of estimates to the usefulness of financial information is counteracted by two major factors: (i) Objective difficulties. In the current volatile and largely unpredictable business environment, due to fast-changing market conditions (deregulation, privatization, emerging economies) and rapid technological changes, it is increasingly difficult for managers to make reliable projections of business events. Consider, for example, the estimated future return on pension assets—a key componen t of the pension expense: This estimate is essentially a prediction of the long-term performance of capital markets.Are managers better predictors of market performance than investors? 3 Or, reflect on the generally large impairment charges of fixed assets and acquired intangibles (including goodwill) mandated by SFAS 121 and SFAS 142: The determination of these 2 Indeed, Aboody and Lev (1998) document a positive association between capitalized software development costs and future earnings. 3 Consider, for example, the 2001 pension footnotes of three financial institutions, Merrill Lynch, Bank of NewYork, and Charles Schwab, which report the following estimates of the expected returns on pension assets: 6. 60%, 10. 50%, and 9. 00%, respectively (Zion, 2002). The wide range of estimates (6. 6%-10. 5%) of the long term performance of capital markets reflects the inherently large uncertainty (unreliability) of the pension expense estimate. 4 charges requires managers to estimate futur e cash flows from tangible and intangible assets. In today’s highly competitive and contested markets the reliability of asset cash flows forecasted over several years is obviously questionable.Accordingly, the accounting estimates and projections underlying financial information introduce a considerable and unknown degree of noise, and perhaps bias to financial information, clearly detracting from their usefulness. 4 (ii) Manipulation. Add to the above objective difficulties in generating reliable estimates the expected and frequently documented susceptibility of accounting estimates to managerial manipulation, and the consequent adverse impact of estimates on the usefulness of financial information becomes apparent.Given that it is very difficult to â€Å"settle up† with manipulators of estimates—even if an estimate turns out ex post to be far off the mark, it is virtually impossible to prove that ex ante the estimate was intentionally manipulated—there are no effective disincentives for managers to manipulate accounting estimates. Indeed, many of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement cases alleging financial reporting manipulation concern misuse of estimates underlying accruals (e. g. Dechow et al. , 1996). Thus, the impact of estimates underlying accounting measurement and reporting procedures on the usefulness of financial information is an open question, to be examined in this study. The relevance of this examination cannot be overstated. Accounting estimates and projections underlie much of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) and consume 4 A case in point (Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2004, p. c1): â€Å"Investors in Travelers have needed more than that ed umbrella protection from what has been raining on them since the company was spun out from Citigroup in early 2002. Late last month, St. Paul Travelers Cos. , †¦ announced what Morgan Stanley termed a ‘blockbuster reserve chargeà ¢â‚¬â„¢ of $1. 625 billion. The charge was about twice as large as analysts have been expecting. The insurer contends that the charge stems largely from the need to reconcile differing accounting treatments at the two companies [Travelers and its acquisition—St. Paul Cos. ]. It was just a â€Å"reserve valuation adjustment,† the company said†¦.Sadly there seems to be little reason why Travelers’ executives didn’t anticipate problems with St. Paul’s insurance methodologies†¦ Mr. Benet [Travelers’ CFO] said:†¦we recognized early on that there was a difference in some of the methodologies [to estimate reserves] that would have to be addressed. † (emphasis ours). Thus, different accounting methodologies used to estimate the same reserves, all approved by auditors, yield a difference of $1. 625 billion. 5 most of standard-setters’ time and efforts.Just consider the major issues addressed by the FASB in recent yearsâ₠¬â€financial instruments, employee stock options, fixed assets and goodwill impairment, and the valuation of acquired intangibles, to name a few—all require major estimates and forecasts in the process of accounting measurement and reporting. If these and other accounting estimates do not contribute significantly to the usefulness of financial information, the efforts of accounting regulators, and even more importantly, the resources society devotes to the generation of estimates in the process of financial statement preparation and their auditing, are misdirected.Worse yet, if financial information users are led by the estimates-based accounting information to misallocate resources, an additional dead-weight cost is imposed on society. We define and test the usefulness of estimates embedded in accrual earnings in terms of their ability to predict enterprise performance. 5 This predictive use of financial information is central to security analysis and valuation and is also a fundamental premise of the FASB’s Conceptual Framework as indicated by the quote above. Future enterprise performance is mainly reflected by cash flows and earnings.Future cash flows are at the core of asset and liabilities accounting valuation rules. Thus, for example, asset impairment (SFAS 144) is determined by expected cash flows, and the useful lives of acquired intangibles (SFAS 142) are a function of future cash flows. More fundamentally, asset or enterprise cash flows are postulated by economic theory as the major determinants of their value. Given a certain ambiguity about the specific definition of cash flows used by investors, we perform our tests with two widelyused and frequently prescribed cash flow constructs: cash from operations (CFO) and free cash flows (FCF).Much of prior related research focused on CFO. Free cash flows are central to 5 There are, of course, other uses of financial data, such as in contracting arrangements, which are not aimed at predicti ng future enterprise performance. 6 many practitioners’ valuation models (e. g. Brealey and Myers, 2003), and play an important role in research too (e. g. , FCF is a primary variable in the valuation constructs of Feltham and Ohlson, 1995). Cash flow prediction is thus a predominant element of accounting measurements and practitioners’ valuation processes.Despite the prominence of cash flows in economic asset valuation models, there is no denying that many investors and analysts are using financial data to predict earnings. The underlying heuristics are somewhat obscured; perhaps investors predict earnings first, and derive future cash flow estimates from the predicted earnings. In any case, earnings prediction is prevalent in practice, and we therefore also examine the usefulness of accounting estimates for the prediction of earnings, both operating and net income.The focus of this study is on accounting estimates, but many of the estimates underlying financial infor mation are not disclosed in the financial reports. 6 We, therefore, focus in this study on accruals, most of which are based on estimates. In particular, we distinguish between accruals which are largely unaffected by estimates (changes in working capital items, excluding inventory), and accruals which are primarily based on estimates (most non-working capital accruals). This enables us to draw sharper inferences on the effect of estimates on the usefulness of financial information.We also analyze a smaller sample of firms with data on specific estimates which we split into recurring and non-recurring to separate noise (the non-recurring estimates) from information (the recurring estimates). Our empirical analysis is based on a sample of all non-financial Compustat firms with the required data—ranging from roughly 1,500 to 3,200 companies per year—and spanning the 6 For example, General Electric reports in its revenue recognition footnote that various components of rev enues derived from long-term projects are based on the estimated profitability of these projects.GE, however, does not break down total revenues into estimates and â€Å"facts. † 7 period 1988-2005. Our tests are conducted in three stages: (1) In-sample, industry-by-industry, predictions of future enterprise cash flows and earnings, based on: (a) current cash flows only (the benchmark), (b) earnings, and (c) the set of cash flows, the change in working capital (excluding inventory), and various components of accruals based on estimates. Here we follow the regression procedures of Barth, Cram, and Nelson (2001) and find, on more recent data, results which are generally consistent with Barth et al.This is our departure point. (2) Out-of sample firm specific predictions of future cash flows and earnings using the industry specific parameter estimates of the in-sample regressions. The focus of this analysis is on the improvement in the quality of predictions brought about by the addition of estimates (accruals) to the predictors. We thus predict cash flow from operations, free cash flows, net income before extraordinary items, and operating income over various horizons: one year ahead, second year ahead, aggregate two years ahead, and aggregate three years ahead.Our results show that accounting estimates do not improve the prediction of future cash flows (both operating and free cash flows), compared with predictions based on current CFO and the change in working capital excluding inventory. However, accruals do improve next year’s prediction of net and operating income. Notably, cash flow predictions based on current earnings only are significantly inferior to those generated by current CFO, contrary to Kim and Kross (2005). In our small sample analysis, neither recurring nor nonrecurring estimates improved significantly the predictions of either cash flows or earnings.The bottom line—accounting estimates beyond those in working capital items (except inventory) do not improve the prediction of cash flows. 8 (3) Finally, we examine the economic significance of estimates. These tests complement stage two, which is based on the statistical significance of differences in the quality of alternative predictors. Since it is difficult to gauge economic significance from statistical significance, we perform various portfolio tests, where portfolios are constructed from predicted cash flows and earnings based on various predictors, some of which are based on estimates.The abnormal returns on these portfolios, generated by alternative predictors, are our gauge of economic significance. The focus here is on comparing the returns on portfolios constructed from predictions based on current cash flows only (the benchmark), with returns on portfolios constructed from predictions based on current earnings or current cash flows plus changes in working capital and estimates. The results from these tests generally corroborate the out-of-sa mple prediction tests.In practically all our portfolio tests the model that uses current operating cash flows only to predict firm performance generates higher abnormal returns than models which add estimates to the prediction process used for the portfolio formation, though most of these returns are insignificant. Furthermore, the portfolios constructed from predictions based on current cash flows only yield abnormal returns with generally lower standard deviation than the alternative portfolios which include earnings or estimates among the predictors. We caution against sweeping conclusions.We examine the usefulness of accounting estimates in terms of predictive ability with respect to future firm performance. Accounting information is used for other purposes too (contracting, national accounting), for which estimates may be useful. Furthermore, our prediction tests are based on fairly simple models. Users may be using different, more sophisticated models where estimates could pro ve to be useful. 9 Nevertheless, we believe that our findings draw attention to the significant vulnerability of financial information from the multitude of underlying estimates and projections, and to the urgent need for improving the eliability of estimates, on which we comment in the concluding section. The order of discussion is as follows: Section 2 relates our findings to available research, and Section 3 outlines our research design. Section 4 describes our sample, and Section 5 reports our prediction tests. Section 6 informs on a battery of robustness checks, and Section 7 focuses on a subsample with an extended set of accounting estimates. Section 8 reports our portfolio (economic significance) tests, while Section 9 concludes the study. 2.Relation to Available Research Our study interfaces with several active research areas, and below we comment on the relation between our work and various representative studies. We are not familiar with empirical studies which assess the impact of accounting estimates on the informativeness of financial information, but there is a substantial number of studies that examine the contribution of accruals to the prediction of future cash flows and other variables. These studies can be roughly classified into regression-based (in-sample) analyses, and out-of-sample prediction tests.An example of the former is the comprehensive work by Barth, Cram and Nelson (2001), who regress CFO on lagged values of CFO and components of accruals (primarily the changes in accounts receivable, inventories, and accounts payable, as well as depreciation & amortization and other accruals). The authors report (p. 27) that â€Å"each accrual component reflects different information relating to future cash flows†¦[and] is significant with the predicted sign in predicting future cash flows, incremental to current cash flows. Note that 10 predictive ability is assessed in this and similar studies by the significance of the estimated accrua ls’ coefficients and by the improvement inR 2. 7 An interesting extension of the regression strand is provided by Subramanyam and Venkatachalam (2007) who examine the relative explanatory power of earnings and cash flows with respect to an ex post measure of the intrinsic value of equity which uses Ohlson’s (1995) equity valuation framework, based on realized values of earnings and book values.The authors argue that such measurement of equity values avoids the necessity to assume capital market efficiency, as in Dechow’s (1994) study relating accruals to contemporaneous stock returns. Dechow documents a significant association between accruals and stock returns, but the implications of such association for market efficiency are challenged by Sloan’s (1996) findings of strong return reversals (market inefficiency) following extreme accruals.Subramanyam and Venkatachalam (2007) conclude that operating cash flows are more strongly associated with future cash flows than earnings, and that current earnings are more strongly associated with future earnings than cash flows. Regressing the ex-post equity measure on earnings and cash flows indicates that earnings exhibit a higher explanatory power than cash flows. By and large, the in-sample regression studies suggest that accruals are associated with subsequent cash flows and contemporaneous equity values, a finding we largely update and corroborate in the initial stage of our analysis (Section 5. ). However, as is argued in Section 5. 1, in-sample regressions are not prediction tests, and may even provide misleading inferences concerning prediction power. We move, therefore, to out-of-sample tests. An early and innovative out-of-sample prediction test is Finger (1994), who concludes from a sample of 50 companies with long historical data that cash flow is marginally superior to 7 Bowen et al. (1986) and Greenberg et al. (1986) perform similar regression-based, in-sample predictions. 11 ear nings for short-term predictions and performs similar to earnings in long-term cash flow predictions.However, time-series and cross-sectional out-of-sample short-term prediction tests by Lorek and Willinger (1996) and Kim and Kross (2005), respectively, show that current earnings predict more accurately future cash flows than current cash flows do. Thus, a mixed picture emerges from the out-of-sample tests, calling for further research. Note also that most previous studies, in- and out-of-sample, focus on the prediction of cash from operations, despite the fact that free cash flows (a measure included in our tests) is frequently used by analysts and investors.Barth, Beaver, Hand and Landsman (2005) provide an interesting perspective on the usefulness of accruals. Using the valuation framework of Feltham and Ohlson (1995, 1996), they examine the ability to predict equity value of various disaggregations of earnings: aggregate earnings, cash flows and total accruals, as well as cash f lows and four major components of accruals. The prediction methodology is out-of-sample in a particular sense: cross-sectional valuation models are run for each year (equity values regressed on contemporaneous earnings disaggregations), excluding each time a particular sample firm.The equity value of that firm is then predicted from the estimated coefficients of the models. Barth et al. (2005, p. 5) â€Å"†¦find evidence of some reduction in mean prediction errors from disaggregating earnings into cash flows and total accruals, and some additional reduction from disaggregating total accruals into its four major components†¦median prediction errors generally support disaggregation of earnings only into cash flows and total accruals. Overall, these findings vary considerably by industry, and appear to indicate a more consistent success for the cash flows and total accruals model than for the cash flows and disaggregated accruals model. 8 8 Studies such as Bathke et al. (198 9) and Lorek et al. (1993) also perform out-of-sample prediction tests. 12 The substantial body of research on the accruals anomaly initiated by Sloan (1996) is tangentially related to our study.This research establishes that accruals are often misinterpreted by investors: large (small) accruals firms are contemporaneously overvalued (undervalued) in capital markets, and these misvaluations are largely reversed within a couple of years. Notably, much of the accruals anomaly resides in small, thinly traded firms, which are unattractive to most institutional investors (Lev and Nissim, 2006), a fact that contributes significantly to the persistence of this anomaly. It is important to note that our focus in this study is different from the ccruals anomaly research: we do not examine investors’ perceptions of accruals, and the consequences of such perceptions. Rather, we focus on the contribution of accruals and by implication of the embedded estimates to the primary role of finan cial information—assisting users in predicting future enterprise performance. The short-term market inefficiencies highlighted by the accruals anomaly are, of course, worth noting, but they do not inform much on the presumed role of accruals—to improve the prediction of enterprise performance.Stated differently, while extreme accruals are often mispriced contemporaneously by investors, a misperception corrected fairly shortly thereafter, accounting accruals in general, prevalent in every financial report, may still enhance the multi-year prediction of firm performance. It is this fundamental role of accruals and their underlying estimates that is the main theme of our study. The lack of convergence of the extant accruals’ usefulness research makes it very difficult to draw firm conclusions.Some studies are in-sample, while others are out-of-sample; some researchers relate accruals to contemporaneous returns or equity values whereas others to future values. Some predict cash flows while others predict equity values based on models using forecasted or realized residual earnings. Our main contribution to extant research is the focus on the estimates embedded in accruals and the provision of certain closure to the usefulness of 13 accruals issue. We distinguish between accruals which are largely based on facts and those primarily reflecting estimates, to focus on the usefulness of accounting estimates.Our main tests are out-of-sample predictions, replicating what most investors actually do—predict, with no ex post information (as implicitly assumed by in-sample studies), various versions of future earnings and cash flows. The comprehensiveness of our predicted performance measures (two versions of earnings and two of cash flows), and the number of future periods examined (years t+1, t+2, and aggregate next two years and next three years) enables us, we believe, to draw general conclusions about the contribution of estimates to firm perf ormance rediction. Furthermore, our study is the first, we believe, to examine both the statistical and economic performance of accruals-based prediction models. Inferences from statistical significance are sometimes difficult to draw and generalize. Consider, for example, the Barth, Beaver, Hand and Landsman (2005, p. 5) conclusion: â€Å"we find evidence of some reduction in mean prediction errors from disaggregating earnings†¦Ã¢â‚¬  (emphasis ours). While definitely interesting, this conclusion leaves open the important question of: how material is â€Å"some reduction†?Is it, for example, sufficiently large to support the current move of the FASB and IASB toward increased reliance on estimates in financial reports (fair value, stock option expensing, etc. )? Statistical significance coupled with economic significance, as provided below, allows for a more comprehensive evaluation of the evidence. 9 The focus on accounting estimates, the out-ofsample methodology, and the examination of both statistical and economic significance, all bringing certain closure to the research question, is our main contribution. 3. Research Design Examples of studies including economic significance tests are Ou and Penman (1989), Stober (1992), Abarbanell and Bushee (1998), and Piotroski (2000). 14 Our research design consists of three stages: (a) in-sample association tests of cash flows (earnings) regressed on lagged values of these variables and accruals, (b) out-of-sample forecasts of cash flows (earnings) based on these variables and accruals and (c) calculation of hedge future excess returns on portfolios constructed from the out-of-sample predicted cash flows (earnings) in stage (b).We conduct the first stage as a link to and departure from previous research by estimating cross-sectional in-sample regressions as in the Barth, Cram and Nelson (2001) study (BCN hereafter). We use several prediction constructs, primarily to distinguish between accruals largely based on facts and those based on estimates. At one extreme of the accruals disaggregation we classify all the accruals in the â€Å"operations† section of the cash flow statement into working capital changes excluding inventory (? WC*) and the remaining accruals, termed â€Å"estimates† (EST): EARNINGSCash from Working Capital Operations Change excluding (CFO) inventory (? WC*) Estimates (EST) ACCRUALS Working capital items with the exception of inventory, such as accounts payable and short-term marketable securities, are generally not materially impacted by managerial estimates,10 whereas 10 The accounts receivable change, net of the provision, is an exception, since it is subject to an estimate. But this estimate is included in our second accruals component, EST. 15 most of the remaining accruals are in fact pure estimates (e. g. , depreciation and amortization, bad debt provision, in-process R&D).At the other end of the accruals disaggregation we separate out the c hange in inventory (? INV) from the aggregate estimates (EST), given the evidence (e. g. , Thomas and Zhang, 2002) that much of the accruals anomaly resides in inventory, probably due to intentional and unintentional misestimations of this item. We further break out depreciation and amortization (D&A) and deferred taxes (DT) from other estimates because the identification of these items is possible from Compustat data over the entire sample period. This disaggregation is depicted thus: EARNINGS CFO WC* (minus inventory) ?Inventory (? INV) Dep. & Amortization (D&A) ACCRUALS Def. Taxes (DT) Other estimates (EST*) The various components of accruals along with cash from operations (CFO),11 depicted in the two exhibits above are the independent variables in the estimation models underlying our in-sample predictions. We add to these variables the cash flow statement figure of capital expenditures (CAPEX), since the dependent variables in our models are future cash flows or earnings, which are generally affected by current investment (capital expenditures). We believe 11We measure CFO as in Barth et al. (2001), namely net cash flow from operating activities, adjusted for the accrual portion of extraordinary items and discontinued operations. 16 that the addition of capital expenditures to the regressors improves the specification of the insample prediction models, and sharpens our focus on the relative performance of the accruals components, our focus of study. Indeed, the capital expenditures variable is statistically significant in most of our annual in-sample predictions models. 12 3. 1 Prediction tests Our prediction tests take the following general form.We predict two versions of cash flows (cash from operations and free cash flows) and two constructs of earnings (net income before extraordinary items and operating income) in years t+1 and t+2, as well as in aggregate years t+1 & t+2, and t+1 through t+3. To gain insight into the usefulness of estimates in predi cting firm performance, we use five prediction models with increasing disaggregation of accruals (regressors): Model 1: current CFO only—the benchmark model; Model 2: current net income (NI) only; Model 3: current CFO and the change in working capital items excluding inventory (?WC*)—namely, largely fact-based regressors; Model 4: current CFO, the change in working capital items excluding inventory ? WC*, and total remaining accruals, largely based on estimates (EST); and Model 5: current CFO, the change in working capital items excluding inventory ? WC*, the change in inventories (? INV), depreciation & amortization (D&A), the change in deferred taxes (DT), and all other estimates (EST*)—the most disaggregated model. The purpose is to examine whether the gradual addition of components of accruals 12 For robustness, we reran our predictions (reported in Table 3) without capital expenditures, and conclude that one of our inferences changes in the absence of capit al expenditures. 17 estimates to current cash flows (the benchmark) improves the prediction of future cash flows or earnings. Increasing the disaggregation of accruals should, in general, enhance the quality of prediction (from model 1 to 5), since the individual accrual components are allowed to have different effects (multiples) on the predicted values. We examine model 2 because the predictor, earnings, is a summary accounting variable that has been extensively investigated for its information content and has been used in most prior studies (e. . BCN and Kim and Kross 2005). It is important to note that the cross-sectional estimates of the five in-sample prediction models are obtained for 2-digit SIC industry groups. These industry specific estimates make the implicit assumption of constancy of coefficients across firms reasonably tenable. We implement the second stage of our research design by using the industry specific estimated coefficients from each of the above five predict ion models to calculate firm specific predicted values for cash from operations (CFO), free cash flows (FCF), net income (NI) and operating income (OI).We then calculate firm specific prediction errors as the difference between the actual and predicted values of each variable examined. The following examples of the prediction of free cash flows (FCF) will clarify our prediction procedures. A. Prediction of next year’s free cash flows, FCF (t+1) (a) Benchmark Model using CFO only (example for 1990): 1. Estimate cross-sectionally for each 2-digit industry the following regression: FCF (89) = ? + ? CFO(88) + ? . , 2. Predict for each firm in a given 2-digit industry: EFCF (90) = ? + ? CFO(89) using the previously determined industry specific estimated coefficients. . Determine prediction error for each firm in a given 2-digit industry: EFCF (90) . FCF (90) – 18 Here we predict 1990 free cash flows (EFCF(90) from current cash from operations, CFO (89) (and capital expendit ures). First, for each 2-digit industry we regress cross-sectionally free cash flows of 1989 on CFO in 1988, and obtain the estimated coefficients ? and . ? Those coefficients are then used to predict firm specific free cash flows (EFCF) in 1990, using the firm’s actual CFO of 1989. Then, a firm specific prediction error is determined by comparing the firm’s actual 1990 FCF with the predicted one.The same procedure is repeated for every firm and sample year. (b) Restricted Estimates, Model 4 (example for 1990): Estimate cross-sectionally for each 2-digit industry: FCF (89) = ? + ? 1CFO(88) + ? 2? WC * (88) + ? 3EST (88) + ? . The subsequent prediction and error determinations are done as in (a) above. Here we predict 1990 free cash flows from CFO, ? WC* (change in working capital items excluding inventory), EST (estimates), and capital expenditures (not shown in the equation). First, a cross-sectional regression of 1989 free cash flows is run on the 1988 values of CFO, ? WC*, and EST, yielding coefficients ? ? 1, ? 2, and ? 3. Then, firm specific 1990 free cash flows are predicted, using the four industry specific estimated coefficients and the 1989 actual values of CFO, ? WC*, and EST. Finally, these 1990 FCF predictions are compared with the 1990 actual free cash flows to determine the prediction error. The same procedure is repeated for each firm and sample year. (c) Expanded Estimates, Model 5 (example for 1990): Estimate cross-sectionally for each 2-digit industry: FCF (89) = ? + ? 1 CFO(88) + ? 2 ? WC * (88) + ? 3? INV (88) + ? 4 D & A(88) + ? 5 DT (88) + ? 6 EST * (88) + ? . 19The prediction and error determinations are done as in (a) above. Here we predict 1990 free cash flows from 1989 CFO, capital expenditures, and the disaggregated set of estimates (see second diagram at the beginning of this Section). Once more, we run by industry a cross-sectional regression of 1989 FCF on the 1988 values of the independent variables, estimating the ? and ? 1†¦ ? 6 coefficients (and a ? 7 coefficient for 1988 capital expenditures). The firm-specific 1990 free cash flows are predicted using these industry specific coefficients and the actual values of the independent variables in 1989.Computation of the 1990 FCF prediction error follows. B. Prediction of year 2 free cash flows, FCF (t+2) Benchmark Model (example for 1992): 1. Estimate cross-sectionally by 2-digit industry: FCF (90) = ? + ? 1CFO(88) + ? 2. Predict for each firm in a given 2-digit industry: EFCF (92) = ? + ? 1CFO(90) 3. Prediction Error for each firm in a given 2-digit industry: FCF (92) – EFCF (92) This is the prediction of free cash flows in t+2. It follows the earlier procedure with one difference: Here the cross-sectional estimate (first equation) and the forecast (second equation) involve a two-year lag (e. . , FCF in 1990 regressed on CFO of 1988). Same procedure is performed for each firm and sample year. The expanded prediction models incorpora ting disaggregated accruals follow steps (b) and (c), above. We also predict free cash flows for aggregate years t+1 plus t+2, and t+1 through t+3. These predictions are based on the procedures described above, except that aggregated future free cash flows are substituted for single year free cash flows as left-hand variables in the various models. The procedure demonstrated above for FCF is also used to predict cash from operations 20 CFO) in t+1, t+2, and aggregated future years, and to predict earnings in t+1, t+2 and aggregated future years. Two versions of earnings—net income before extraordinary items (NI) and operating income (OI)—are predicted. The various prediction models for earnings are identical to those of free cash flows described above, except that earnings in t+1 and t+2 are substituted for FCF in those models. To summarize, we perform out-of-sample predictions of two versions of cash flows and two versions of earnings from current values of CFO, curre nt values of NI, and CFO plus changes in working capital and various combinations of accruals.To evaluate the quality of the out-of-sample predictions, we compute summary measures of prediction errors derived from the firm- and year-specific estimated errors: the mean and median signed prediction errors indicating the bias in the forecasts, and the mean and median absolute prediction errors which abstract from the sign of the error and indicate forecast accuracy. The firm-specific prediction error in a given year is computed as the realized value of cash flow or earnings minus the predicted cash flow or earnings, divided by average total assets in year t. . 2 Portfolio analysis The third stage of our research design is motivated by Poon and Granger (2003, p. 491) who note: â€Å"Instead of striving to make some statistical inference, [prediction] model performance could be judged on some measures of economic significance. † We interpret their statement as saying that we shoul d not rely solely on the statistical significance of our prediction errors calculated in stage two but should also examine and perhaps even rely more on measures of economic significance.To gauge the economic significance of the contribution of estimates to the usefulness of financial information we perform a series of portfolio tests focusing on the incremental stock returns generated by the estimates-based prediction models. 21 Essentially, we use the out-of-sample predicted values of cash flows (CFO and FCF) and alternatively of earnings (NI and OI), obtained in the second stage of our analysis, to form portfolios.Specifically, for each sample year we rank all firms (across all industries) on predicted firm-specific cash flows or earnings (four rankings, two for cash flows and two for earnings), scaled by average total assets in the end of year t. We then form ten portfolios from each annual ranking and compute risk-adjusted (size & book-to-market adjusted) returns from holding t hese portfolios over several future periods. In assessing the performance of the various predictors (CFO, NI, ? WC*, accruals of estimates), we primarily focus on a zero-investment (hedge) strategy: going long (investing) in the top ortfolio (the 10% of firms with the largest (scaled) predicted cash flows or earnings), and shorting (selling) the bottom portfolio (10% of firms with the lowest predicted cash flows or earnings). The abnormal returns on these zeroinvestment portfolios indicate the economic contribution to investors of using accounting estimates as predictors. Thus, if estimates are useful to investors then portfolios constructed from predictions based on current cash flows and estimates-based accruals should consistently outperform portfolios formed from predictions based on current cash flows only.It should be noted that if markets are efficient concerning the information in accruals—a big if, in light of Sloan (1996)—and if investors select securities us ing procedures similar to our industry-based prediction models specified above, then our subsequent portfolio abnormal returns should be roughly zero. Our purpose in these portfolio tests, however, is not to examine market efficiency, rather to compare the performance of portfolio selection procedures with the estimates-based accruals against similar procedures without accruals (based on past cash flows only).We are thus focusing on the with- and without-accruals comparisons, being agnostic about market efficiency. Stated differently, the comparative abnormal hedge returns across the 22 five prediction models, rather than the statistical significance of those returns, is our focus of analysis. 4. Sample Selection and Descriptive Statistic We obtain accounting data from the 2006 Compustat annual industrial, full coverage, and research files, and use data from the statement of cash flows because Collins and Hribar (2002) suggest that such data are preferable to accruals derived from t he balance sheet.Since reporting a statement of cash flows was mandated by SFAS 95 in 1987, our accounting data span the period 1988 to 2005. 13 In the in-sample regression analysis, each year from 1988 to 2004 is a predictor year (generating the independent variables) while each year from 1989 to 2005 is a predicted year (providing the dependent variables). Thus, 17 in-sample annual regressions are estimated for each industry. Our sample selection procedure is as follows. We start with 75,571 observations with values for NI, CFO, ? WC*, INV, D&A, DT, EST, EST* and CAPEX for the current year, year t, and for NI over a three-year horizon, t-1 to t+1. Firms with all fiscal year ends are included. We control for outliers by following the procedures in Barth et al. (2001). Thus, after eliminating the top and bottom one percentile of current NI and CFO we are left with 73,324 firm-year observations. By excluding observations with market value of equity or sales of less than $10 million, or with share prices below $1, to eliminate economically marginal firms, the number of observations decreases to 51,301.By deleting observations with studentized residuals greater than 3 or less than -3, we are left with 50,288 observations. Since we conduct industry-byindustry in-sample regression analysis we require each industry to have a minimum of 600 observations over the period 1988 to 2004. This criterion reduces the sample to its final size of 13 Valid statement of cash flows data for the year 1987 are available for a relatively small number of firms not enough to do a meaningful industry-by-industry analysis. Thus, we do not use 1987 data. 23 41,124 observations.We obtain stock returns data for the portfolio analysis from the 2006 CRSP files. 14 Table 1 provides summary statistics (variables are scaled by average total assets) and a correlation matrix for out test variables. Panel A shows that depreciation and amortization (D&A) constitutes the bulk of the estimates underl ying accruals (EST): The mean (median) of D&A is 0. 054 (0. 047), close to the mean (median) of EST, 0. 059 (0. 052). The mean of net estimates (EST*), excluding D&A and deferred taxes, is quite large, 0. 019, and is driven mainly by large positive values, as the median value of 0. 04, Q1 of 0. 000 and Q3 of 0. 019 imply. CFO has the lowest while NI has the highest variability (standard deviations of 0. 129 versus 0. 149) among the various earnings and cash flow variables. In panel B all correlations are significant at the 5% level or better. We note the high negative correlations of our estimates variables, EST and EST*, with the income variables, NI and OI. However, the correlations of EST and EST* with both the cash flow variables, CFO and FCF, are much lower; positive for EST and negative for EST*. 4 We repeated all of our analyses with a sample without any outlier removal, namely where we only require non- missing values for the key variables, and at least 600 observations in e ach 2-digit SIC over the sample period 19882004. This sample consists of 65,178 observations and is substantially larger than the sample of 41,124 observations used in the analysis reported below. We find that for many industries the R-squares in the in-sample regressions are higher for the un-truncated data than for the truncated data.The forecast error results are essentially identical to the results from the truncated sample in terms of inferences but the errors are larger. The portfolio abnormal returns results exhibit similar patterns to the results from truncated data. Overall, the un-truncated data yield very similar results to those of the truncated data reported below. 24 5. Empirical Findings: Prediction Tests 5. 1 Stage one: In-sample Regressions Table 2 reports cross-sectional annual regressions, by industry, of CFO (cash from operations) on lagged values of CFO and earnings components (Model 5 in Section 3).The reported coefficient estimates for each industry are the me ans of the yearly coefficients over the 17 year period, 1988 to 2004. The significance of these mean coefficients is based on (nonreported) t-statistics calculated using the mean and standard errors of the 17 yearly coefficients, as in Fama and MacBeth (1973). We report the results for the CFO regressions so that they can be compared to the CFO results reported by BCN. The, in-sample regression results for FCF, NI and OI are very similar to those reported in Table 2. It is evident that in each of the twenty-three ndustries in Table 2 the lagged CFO and ? WC* (change in working capital minus inventory) are highly significant. In the majority of the industries, ? INV (inventory change) is also significant, as is D&A. However, DT (deferred taxes) and EST* (other accruals estimates) are significant for about half of the industries only. These results are quite consistent with BCN’s results reported in their Table 6, Panel B (note that the sum of our DT and EST* variables is the O TH variable in BCN). The fairly large R2s, ranging across industries from 0. 29 to 0. 71, are also consistent with the R2s reported by BCN.Thus, the BCN regression results over the period 1987 to 1996 hold well over our longer period, 1988-2004. Overall, the estimates indicate a strong association between CFO and lagged earnings components, raising expectations about strong out-of-sample performance as well. However, it is important to note that a regression analysis of a given variable on lagged values of that variable along with other data, as frequently conducted in accounting and finance research, is not a conclusive test of predictive ability. As noted in Poon and Granger’s (2003, p. 25 92) survey: â€Å"In all forecast evaluations, it is important to distinguish in-sample and out-ofsample forecasts. In-sample forecast, which is based on parameters estimated using all data in the sample, implicitly assumes parameter estimates are stable through time. In practice, time v ariation of parameter estimates is a critical issue in forecasting. A good forecasting model should be one that can withstand the robustness of an out-of-sample test, a test design that is closer to reality. In our analyses of empirical findings†¦ we focus our attention on studies that implement out-of-sample forecasts. A dramatic example of misplaced inferences drawn on the basis of regression analysis has been recently provided by Goyal and Welch (2007). Their focus is on the prediction of stock market returns based on a variety of variables suggested by prior studies (e. g. dividend yield, earnings-price ratio, book-to-market ratio), using in-sample regression models. After a comprehensive analysis, Goyal and Welch conclude that â€Å"these models have predicted poorly both in-sample and out-of-sample for thirty years now; these models seem unstable, as diagnosed by their out-of-sample predictions nd other statistics; and these models would not have helped an investor with access only to available information to profitably time the market† (Abstract). This important insight motivates our primary analysis which focuses on out-of-sample prediction tests. In the case of predicting stock returns, Goyal and Welch’s concern, in-sample regression results are generally weak and it is therefore not surprising that the out-of-sample predictions of Goyal and Welch perform poorly too.In contrast, in our case of predicting cash flows and earnings, the in-sample regressions (Table 2) perform well, so, whether the more realistic out-of-sample predictions of cash flows and earnings perform equally well is an important empirical issue which we examine next. 26 5. 2 Stage two: Out-of-sample Prediction Tests Table 3 summarizes our main out-of-sample prediction findings. Recall that we predict four key performance indicators: cash from operations (CFO); free cash flows, defined as CFO minus capital expenditures (FCF); net income before extraordinary items (N I); and operating income (OI).There are four prediction horizons: next year, second year ahead, aggregate next two years, and aggregate next three years. Five prediction models are examined (they were discussed and demonstrated in Section 3), where the predictive (independent) variables are: (1) CFO only—the benchmark model, (2) NI only, (3) CFO and the annual change in working capital items excluding inventory (? WC*), (4) CFO plus the change in working capital items excluding inventory (? WC*), as well as the total remaining accruals (EST) which are largely estimates based, including the change in inventory, and (5) our most disaggregated model: CFO, ?WC*, the change in inventories, depreciation and amortization, deferred taxes, and all remaining estimates. Current capital expenditure is included as an additional variable in each of the five models. We report in Table 3 four summary statistics for the prediction errors of our five models: the pooled firm-specific mean absol ute error (MAER) of each of the five models, the pooled mean signed error, or bias (MER), the mean R2s from annual regressions of firm-specific actual values of future cash flows or earnings on the corresponding predicted values, and the average over the years of Theil’s U-statistics. 5 We indicate with an ampersand (&), asterisk (*) or a hash (#) the pooled mean absolute prediction errors (MAER) which are significantly different 15 The reported Theil's U-statistic is the average of the yearly U-statistics. Theil’s U is defined as the square root of ?(actual-forecast)2/? (actual)2. The U statistic can range from zero to one, with zero implying a perfect forecast. Thus, models generating better predictions should have lower U statistics. 27 between Models 1 and 2, Models 1 and 3, and Models 3 and 4, and Models 3 and 5, respectively. 6 We have also computed the sample median signed errors, median absolute errors, and root mean square errors. Results from these indicators are very similar to those reported in Table 3 (we comment in the text on the occasional differences). Below are the main inferences we draw from Table 3, and additional analyses: 1. Prediction of cash flows. Considering the prediction of cash from operations (CFO) and free cash flows (FCF)—left two quadruples of columns in Table 3—we note that the predictions derived from net income only (Model 2) are always significantly inferior to the predictions based on cash from operations only (Model 1).This is true across the four forecast horizons and the four error summary statistics. For example, in predicting one-year-ahead cash from operations (top left panel), the MAER, MER and Theil’s U are lower for Model 1 than for Model 2 (0. 056 vs. 0. 062, 0. 001 vs. 0. 003, and 0. 58 vs. 0. 64, respectively), while the R2 of Model 1 is higher than that of Model 2 (0. 46 vs. 0. 37). The difference in the MAERs is statistically significant, as indicted by the & sign. This pat tern is evident across all eight panels reporting predictions of cash from operations and free cash flows for various horizons.Thus, for one- to three-year forecast horizons, current cash from operations is a better predictor of future cash from operations and free cash flows than current net income. This result is inconsistent with Kim and Kross (2005) findings that in one-year-ahead predictions of cash flows current earnings performs better than current cash flows. 17 16 All the absolute forecast errors (MAER) in Table 3 are statistically significant, with p-values of 0. 01 or better. The majority of the signed errors (MER) are also significant at p-values of 0. 1 or better, and many are statistically significant at least at p-values of 0. 05. The following signed errors are insignificant: Model 1 in forecasting Years 12 CFO, Models 1 and 3 in forecasting Years 1-3 CFO, and Models 2, 4 and 5 in forecasting Years 1-3 OI. 17 It is important to note that Kim and Kross (2005) use bala nce sheet items to calculate cash from operations while we use statement of cash flows data. We were able to replicate the out-of-sample prediction results of Kim and 28Moving on to Model 3, (predictors: CFO and the change in working capital items minus inventory), we note that the CFO and FCF predictions derived from current CFO only (Model 1) under-perform predictions based on current CFO and the change in working capital items excluding inventory, ? WC*. Thus, the mean absolute errors of Model 3 are significantly lower than those of Model 1 in all CFO and FCF panels, except in the FCF panel for the aggregate next three years horizon (bottom FCF panel). 18 The reported R2s and Theil’s U statistics also indicate the under-performance of Model 1 relative to Model 3.For example, in predicting one-yearahead cash from operations (top left panel), the MAER and Theil’s U are lower for Model 3 than for Model 1 (0. 054 vs. 0. 056, and 0. 56 vs. 0. 58, respectively), while the R2 of Model 3 is higher than that of Model 1 (0. 50 vs. 0. 46). Thus, for one- to three-year forecast horizons, the total change in working capital items excluding inventory is incrementally informative over current cash flows. This is relevant for our focus on the usefulness of accounting estimates, because the working capital items, excluding inventory, and with the exception of accounts receivable, are largely free of estimates.We now move to examine the contribution of accounting estimates to cash flow prediction. We do this by comparing the performance of Models 4 and 5 to that of Model 3, where Model 3 becomes now our benchmark given its superior performance up to this point. We note that CFO and FCF predictions derived from Model 4 (based on CFO, the change in working capital items excluding inventory (? WC*), as well as all other accruals including the change in inventory) and Model 5 (based on CFO, ? WC*, the change in inventories, depreciation and amortization, Kross usin g balance sheet items for our sample period.Accordingly, the difference in the results between the two studies is due to the data used. As shown by Collins and Hribar (2002), the cash from operations, and accruals derivation from the statement of cash flows is preferable. 18 Note that despite the very small difference between the MAERs of Models 1 and 3, the mean differences are statistically significant at the 0. 05 level or better (see asterisks). 29 deferred taxes, and all remaining accruals) equally perform or under-perform the predictions from Model 3 (based on CFO and ?WC*). Specifically, the mean absolute errors of Model 3 are significantly lower than or equal to the mean absolute errors of Models 4 and 5 in all the CFO and FCF panels. Furthermore, the reported MERs, R2s and Theil’s U statistics are also consistent with the under-performance of Models 4 and 5 relative to Model 3. For example, in predicting one-year-ahead cash from operations (top left panel), the MAER, MER and Theil’s U for Model 3 are either equal to or lower than for Models 4 and 5 (0. 054 vs. 0. 054 and 0. 055; 0. 001 vs. 0. 02 and 0. 002; and 0. 56 vs. 0. 57 and 0. 57, respectively), while the R2 of Model 3 is equal to or higher than the R2s of Models 4 and 5 (0. 50 vs. 0. 50 and 0. 49). Accordingly, we conclude that for one- to three-year forecast horizons the accounting estimates embedded in accruals, either as a lump sum or disaggregated, do not improve cash flow predictions over current cash from operations and the change in working capital (excluding inventory). 19 Conclusions: Neither total earnings, nor disaggregated estimates-based accruals ystematically improve the prediction of cash flows (CFO or FCF) over the predictions based on current CFO and the change in working capital (excluding inventory). This finding is inconsistent with the FASB’s conceptual stipulation that â€Å"Information about enterprise earnings†¦generally provides a better indi cation of an enterprise’s present and continuing ability to generate favorable cash flows than information limited to the financial aspects of cash receipts and payments† (FASB, 1978, p. IX), though our data start ten years after this statement was issued 2. Prediction of earnings.The two quadruples of columns to the right of Table 3 report prediction performance statistics for net income (NI) and operating income (OI). Here, the 19 These inferences do not change when we examine median signed and absolute prediction errors (available on request). 30 predictions derived from net income (Model 2) significantly outperform those based on cash from operations only (Model 1), for the one-year-ahead forecasts. For example, in predicting next year’s operating income (top right panel), the MAER of Model 2 is significantly lower than that of Model 1 (0. 057 vs. 0. 061).The R2s and Theil’s Us confirm the stronger performance of Model 2, for one-year predictions. Inte restingly, Model 2’s predictions are significantly inferior to Model 1’s in the two-years-ahead and aggregate next three years predictions (second and bottom NI and OI panels). For example, in predicting aggregate three-years-ahead operating income (bottom right panel), the MAER of Model 2 is significantly higher than that of Model 1 (0. 257 vs. 0. 253). Thus, for a one-year-ahead forecast horizon, current net income is a better predictor of future net income and operating income than current cash from operations. 0 Of the five models examined for earnings predictions, the best performer is Model 4— with three variables: CFO, ? WC* (change in working capital excluding inventory), and EST (all other accruals)—for all forecast horizons. Intriguingly, Model 5, where EST is disaggregated to several estimates-based accruals, is somewhat inferior to Model 4. Apparently, predicting from disaggregated accruals results in noisy forecasts. Conclusions: Earnings is a better predictor of near-term earnings than cash flow.Accounting accruals, when disaggregated to working capital items and other accruals, improve further the prediction of operating and net income. No further improvement is achieved from a finer disaggregation of accruals. 6. Robustness Checks 1. How good are our prediction models? 20 Our prediction models are admittedly The median absolute errors are lower for Model 2 than for Model 1 in all NI and OI panels except in the bottom two panels (for the aggregate next two and three years horizons). 31 simple—they obviously abstract from many of the complexities of real life security analysis.Nevertheless, the R2s in Table 3—derived from annual regressions of actual values (future cash flows or earnings) on predicted values—are quite large. Thus, for example, for next year’s predictions (top panels of Table 3), the R2 range is 0. 33-0. 58. As expected, the R2s drop for second year predictions, yet they are still in the reasonable range of 0. 21-0. 37. Thus, despite their simplicity, our prediction models perform reasonably well. 2. Trimming extreme prediction errors. The results of Table 3 are after trimming the top 2% of the absolute forecast errors.We also computed prediction errors after trimming the top and bottom 1% of the forecast errors and without any trimming. The resulting patterns of prediction errors (not reported) are in both cases very similar to those of Table 3. As expected, Table 3 trimmed errors are substantially smaller than the non-trimmed errors, the R2s are larger, and the Theil’s U statistics are lower, yet our conclusions regarding the relative performance of the five models equally apply to the non-trimmed errors. substantially our inferences. 3. Classification by size of accruals.Since the estimates we examine are components of total accruals, we classified the sample firms into three groups, by the size of accruals, to check whether accruals size affe cts our findings. Specifically, for each sample year we ranked the firms by the size of total accruals (scaled by total assets), and then formed three groups: the top 25% of firms (high accruals), the middle 50% (medium accruals), and the bottom 25% (low accruals). We then generated cash flow and earnings predictions for each of the three accruals g